FRANKFURT/BOCHUM (dpa-AFX) - According to one expert, German car production will continue to decline in the coming year. In response to Trump's tariffs, manufacturers are shifting part of their production to the US, expects Ferdinand Dudenhoffer, director of the private Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Bochum. The number of employees in German car factories could fall from the current level of around 720,000 to well below 700,000. He expects the figure to be 650,000 by 2027.
In international comparison, the Germans and, with them, the whole of Europe are playing an increasingly smaller role. "Growth is taking place in Asia, and Asian car manufacturers (Japan, Korea, China) are increasingly dominating the car business," writes Dudenhoffer in his market forecast. They account for around 60 percent of the global market in the current year, which CAR sees at its highest level in eight years with 81.3 million sales (2017: 84.4 million). With further strong growth in China, the global market is expected to reach a record 85.4 million cars in 2027.
EY sees German manufacturers in a "perfect storm"
German carmakers are currently experiencing a slump in profits. According to an analysis by consulting firm EY, the operating profit (EBIT) of Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz fell by almost 76 percent to just over 1.7 billion euros in the third quarter of 2025 – the lowest figure in 16 years. EY auto expert Constantin Gall sees German manufacturers in a "perfect storm." The causes are the general weakness of the premium segment, US tariff policy, negative exchange rate effects, high investments in electric cars that have not yet paid off, and high expenses for restructuring the companies.
More than one in three cars is already built in China
China, the world's largest single market, has further expanded its importance this year with 24.3 million passenger car sales. Around 30 million cars were built in the country in 2025, representing a 36.6 percent share of global production. Europe accounts for just 15 percent.
For 2026, Dudenhoffer expects growth of 2 percent to just under 2.9 million sales in the saturated German market. This will be achieved primarily through planned new subsidies for the purchase of electric cars. The following year, the German market will slow down again. In terms of unit sales, however, it will remain the global number 5 after China, the US, India, and Japan.
The future of German car manufacturers is closely linked to the Chinese market, according to the expert. Following the example of the VW Group, they will have to develop and build electric cars "in China for China." In this context, Dudenhoffer criticizes the softening of the combustion engine phase-out originally planned for 2035. He says that it is not possible to disconnect from this development, but that it is necessary to face competition in the tough Chinese market. "If you're not in China, you're not in the car business."/ceb/DP/nas
