Oracle, the IEA, and off we go again?

Equity markets remain relatively resilient in the face of the fears stirred up by the war in Iran. Overnight, investors were handed a double boost from technology giant Oracle and the International Energy Agency, in rather different registers.

Ever since the VIX index climbed back above the 20-point mark, synonymous with heightened financial anxiety, the US stock market has allowed itself to be swept away by its emotions. Here is a two-line summary of the situation: Donald Trump says the war in Iran will be short-lived and will end with a return to normal in energy markets. Oil falls, equities rise. The market is not entirely convinced it is that simple, oil rebounds, equities hesitate. The US Energy Secretary announces that an escorted tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Equities rise, oil drops. The White House denies that this is the case. Equities lose momentum, oil recovers.

That brings us to last night, at the close on Wall Street. US indices finished slightly lower. Not at the session lows, but not far off either. In Europe, investors tied themselves in fewer knots: they were a step behind from the previous day, when indices had closed lower, missing the rebound in US equities. That rebalancing allowed the Stoxx Europe 600 to gain 1.9% and recoup three-quarters of the losses accumulated over the previous three sessions. That is a modest feat given the situation in the Middle East remains highly combustible.

So Wall Street ended slightly down, but that was before a double event that took place after the close. First, Oracle published reassuring results. The group had been hammered a few weeks ago for what was seen as reckless risk-taking in AI infrastructure. Its figures show that the division dedicated to that business is holding up rather well and that the rest of the group continues to deliver solid performances. The shares were up nearly 9% in after-hours trading. It is the kind of release that puts a little fuel back into the AI optimism machine, which badly needs it.

The other event, and a more exceptional one at that, was the proposal made by the International Energy Agency to its members to release an unprecedented volume of oil reserves in order to push crude prices lower. The Wall Street Journal broke the story. IEA member states hold a combined 1.8 billion barrels of oil in reserve, which represents, by a rough calculation, the equivalent of four months of supply from the Persian Gulf. That estimate remains theoretical, however, since it takes account neither of states that may be unwilling to contribute, nor of the minimum reserve levels required of members, nor of the technical constraints linked to oil quality or delivery. Even so, this rumour surrounding the IEA is helping to calm nerves and keep Brent in the USD 85 to USD 90 range. That is far above where it stood a fortnight ago, but well below the peak of almost USD 120 reached on Monday.

It is still the clock that governs how investors perceive risk. The Americans need the war to end quickly to avoid an inflationary slippage driven by oil. The Iranian regime, for its part, has every interest in seeing the conflict drag on in order to put the United States under pressure.

The main item on today's macroeconomic agenda ties directly into that backdrop, with US inflation for February due at 1.30pm. Economists are on average expecting a 2.4% year-on-year rise in prices, and 2.5% for core inflation.

In Asia-Pacific, green is the dominant colour after Oracle and the IEA. Japan is up 1.4%, mainland China 0.7% and Australia 0.6%. Special mention goes to Taiwan, up 4.1%. Hong Kong and India are lower. This also gives me an excuse to share an anecdote about South Korea, which has been highly volatile for weeks and is up 1.5%. Bloomberg has revealed that Koreans are the biggest holders of leveraged ETFs listed in the United States. Given the swings in the KOSPI, that will surprise no one. Korean investors like risk. For the time being, it is paying off. But we all know how that kind of game ends. Europe is expected to open lower, though US futures are pointing higher, which could help improve the picture in early trading.

Today's economic highlights:

Today: in the United States, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, followed by inflation data including the MoM and YoY Inflation Rate, CPI, and CPI s.a, as well as the Core Inflation Rate MoM and YoY; Fed Bowman's Speech; EIA Gasoline and Crude Oil Stocks Change; and finally, the Monthly Budget Statement. See the full calendar here.

• GBP / USD: US$1.34
• Gold: US$5,194.49
• Crude Oil (BRENT): US$87.4
• United States 10 years: 4.14%
• BITCOIN: US$69,959.7

In corporate news:

• Persimmon reported full-year 2025 results, leading RBC to revise its 2026 revenue forecast upward by 8% and adjust profit projections for 2026 and 2027.
• Rio Tinto secured $1.18 billion in financing for its $2.5 billion Rincon lithium project in Argentina, targeting production in 2028 with a 40-year mine life.
• Capita swung to a £170.9 million loss in 2025, with revenue falling 4.5%, and warned of a slight decrease in its adjusted operating margin for 2026.
• Costain reported a 32% rise in 2025 pretax profit to £48.2 million despite a 16% revenue drop, announced a £20 million buyback, and raised its dividend by 75%.
• Griffin Mining expects stable revenue and improved pretax profit in 2026 as its Caijiaying mine transitions to renewable energy and expands production capacity.
• GSK received FDA approval for the expanded use of Wellcovorin to treat cerebral folate deficiency, marking it as the first approved treatment for this rare condition.
• Chrysalis Investments made a £33 million loan repayment after a drop in Klarna's stock price affected its borrowing base, leaving £17.2 million outstanding on its loan.
• Harbour Energy's shareholder Potomac View Investments plans to sell a 3.8% stake via share placing, with no proceeds going to the company.
• Standard Chartered granted 17.9 million conditional share awards to employees under its 2021 share plan.
• Experian priced €300 million in floating-rate notes due 2028 to fund general corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions and debt repayment.
• A block of 28 million Galderma shares has been placed on the market.
• Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena approves the merger plan with Mediobanca.
• Wacker Chemie forecasts slight growth in 2026.
• Avolta confirms its medium-term outlook.
• Short sellers target Wizz Air, weakened by the war in Iran.
• Sandoz extends its $2 billion revolving credit facility until March 2031.
• D'Ieteren's 2025 earnings penalized by refinancing and exchange rates.
• Saipem posts annual net income of €310 million in 2025.
• Oracle rose 8.7% in after-hours trading following its results.
• Amazon attracted approximately $126 billion in orders for its bond sale in the United States, according to Bloomberg.
• Salesforce is considering raising $25 billion in debt to finance its share buybacks, according to Bloomberg.
• AT&T plans to invest $250 billion in its networks in the United States.
• Boeing wins a $289 million contract with Israel for 5,000 “smart” bombs.
• The founders of BioNTech plan to leave the group to launch a new company, causing the stock to fall.
• Starboard has reportedly taken a position in Carmax, according to Bloomberg.
• Bill Ackman is going to list his Pershing Square hedge fund on the US stock market.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

• Johnson Matthey Plc: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 2100 to GBX 1900.
• Lancashire Holdings Limited: Autonomous Research downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from GBP 6.40 to GBP 5.40.
• Barclays Plc: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 550 to GBX 590.
• Vistry Group Plc: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 4.32 to GBP 3.60.
• Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc: Bernstein downgrades to market perform from outperform and reduces the target price from GBX 110 to GBX 50.
• Domino's Pizza Group Plc: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 1.95 to GBP 1.90.
• Spirax Group Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 80.20 to GBP 86.50.
• Entain Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1200 to GBX 1000.
• Antofagasta Plc: Banco BTG Pactual maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 59.90 to GBP 44.50.
• Persimmon Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1819 to GBX 1792.
• Rathbones Group Plc: Jefferies maintains its underperform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 1650 to GBX 1850.
• J Sainsbury Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 365 to GBX 372.
• The Weir Group Plc: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 3000 to GBX 3210.
• Kingfisher Plc: UBS maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 305 to GBX 315.