Starting in October, the eight core members of OPEC+ will increase their production target by 137,000 barrels per day. At this rate, it would take about a year to absorb all of the current reductions, while 2 million barrels per day of cuts will remain in effect until the end of 2026. However, the group reserves the right to adjust this trajectory at its next meetings, with the next one scheduled for October 5.
Market imbalance
Between April and September, OPEC+ already increased its production by 2.5 million barrels per day, or about 2.4% of global demand. This dynamic contributed wighed on in oil prices, with the price per barrel falling by nearly 18% since its January peak, settling at around $67.
These production increases come amid uncertainty about demand, as Donald Trump's trade war could slow global growth.
As a result, there is now excess supply in the oil market, with non-OPEC production already at high levels, particularly in Argentina, Canada, and the United States. According to the International Energy Agency, supply is expected to exceed demand by an average of 3 million barrels per day between October 2025 and the end of 2026—a projection made even before Sunday's announcement.
Limited impact
In theory, adding barrels in such a context should put pressure on prices. In practice, the effect could be limited. Most OPEC+ members are already producing at or near maximum capacity, which limits the impact of the new quotas.
In March 2025, just before the reductions began to be lifted, the group's cumulative production already reached 31.83 million barrels per day, just one million less than the target for September. In fact, several countries, such as Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq, were already exceeding their quotas, collectively pumping 500,000 barrels per day more than planned. These revised quotas therefore merely formalize a situation that is already effective on the ground.
Only Saudi Arabia, which has borne the brunt of production cuts in recent years, will significantly increase its output. The Kingdom is expected to see its production rise from 9.07 million barrels per day in March to 9.98 million in September, while maintaining an estimated reserve capacity of 2.2 million barrels per day.
The Saudis hold the cards
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the architect of the previous cuts, appears to have regained control within the alliance after years of internal tensions.
The OPEC production increase also appears to be in line with Washington's demands. At the beginning of the year, Donald Trump urged OPEC to lower oil prices in order to ultimately reduce inflation in the United States.
Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, Saudi Arabia has been seeking to strengthen its ties with the United States. During the US president's visit to Riyadh last May, Saudi Arabia pledged $600bn in investments in the United States, and Washington signed a massive $142bn arms deal.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected in Washington in November. There is little doubt that Saudi Arabia's energy strategy will feature prominently in the upcoming bilateral discussions.
Is US production under threat?
While in the short term the energy interests of the two countries appear to be aligned, the market share gains of the Saudis and OPEC could nevertheless come at the expense of US producers, whose production costs are higher.
The fall in prices is forcing the latter to cut back on investment and reduce their workforce. According to Enverus' calculations, the top 20 US shale producers have reduced Capex by $1.8bn over the last two quarters.
Last week, ConocoPhillips, the third-largest US producer, announced it would cut 20%-25% of its workforce.
According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency, US production is expected to decline in 2026. This would be the first time since 2015 (excluding the Covid period), when OPEC launched a price war.
