On Wall Street, The Cost of Waiting It Out

Markets are falling alongside hopes for peace: For a few days, investors were willing to believe that diplomacy might outrun escalation, but now that optimism is fading. Missiles are back in the headlines, oil is climbing again, as it appears that the United States and Iran are talking, but not quite negotiating.

That uncertainty is already showing up in markets. Wall Street futures are lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.7% and the S&P 500 down 0.8%, as investors retreat from the hope that a diplomatic breakthrough is close at hand. The problem is not simply that the conflict might worsen, but that it may linger.

For Americans, the first consequence is likely to be familiar: higher energy prices. Oil has surged back above politically comfortable levels, and once crude stays elevated, the effect does not stop at the pump. It moves through airfare, freight, shipping, and consumer goods, reviving inflation just as policymakers had started to believe it was cooling.

That is what makes this moment so uncomfortable for the Federal Reserve. A fresh energy shock pushes prices up while also threatening growth, which means the central bank has less room to cut rates if the economy weakens.

The latest U.S. labor data was published this morning. Initial jobless claims came in at 210,000 for the week ending March 21, exactly in line with expectations. The labor market is holding, not accelerating, and that distinction matters more when households are facing higher costs and businesses are growing more cautious.

Corporate news pointed in the same direction as the broader market: caution, consolidation, and a growing premium on strategic control. Google is moving to label legitimate investment apps in India as fraud and regulatory scrutiny intensify. Equitable and CoreBridge are discussing a merger that would create a $22 billion life insurer, underscoring how scale is becoming more attractive in a less forgiving environment. And in technology, money is still pouring into artificial intelligence - through backing for startups such as Isara and Reflection - but increasingly with a geopolitical overlay, as governments and companies alike treat AI less as a pure growth story than as an issue of national and strategic importance.

Brent is back up sharply, Hapag-Lloyd is already warning that the Iran war will hit earnings as trade flows are disrupted, and the market is beginning to reflect a broader repricing of risk rather than a temporary burst of nerves.

The more important point is that the damage does not require a dramatic rupture to become economically meaningful. If the Strait of Hormuz remains only partially functional, if threats around Bab el-Mandeb intensify, and if companies keep warning that trade, margins, and demand are all becoming harder to forecast, then the bill for this crisis will keep growing even without a single shock large enough to force a policy pivot. Economies can live with uncertainty for a while. Markets can even rally on the hope that talks will eventually catch up with events. But when oil stays high, shipping remains vulnerable, and policy stays constrained, waiting stops being a strategy and starts looking like a cost.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

• Dollar index: 99.780
• Gold: $4,440
• Crude Oil (BRENT): $107.10 (WTI) $94.08
• United States 10 years: 4.37%
• BITCOIN: $69,381

In corporate news:

• Alphabet's Google will label SEBI-registered investment apps in India to curb fraud and help users identify legitimate platforms.
• Equitable and CoreBridge are in talks to merge and create a $22 billion life insurance company.
• Korean Air plans to purchase 103 aircraft from Boeing worth $36.2 billion through 2039.
• Carlyle and KKR will build two $2 billion data centres for the U.S. Army.
• OpenAI (backed by Microsoft) is supporting startup Isara, which develops coordinated AI agents for complex problem-solving.
• U.S. lawmakers are proposing a ban on government use of Chinese-made robots, impacting firms competing with Tesla.
• Nvidia-backed startup Reflection is seeking $2.5 billion in funding at a $25 billion valuation.
• Uber, Pony AI, and Verne are partnering to launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service, starting in Croatia.
• China's semiconductor sector is growing faster than expected, with companies like VAT and Teradyne highlighting rising AI-driven demand.
• South Korea will invest $166 million in AI chip startup Rebellions to strengthen its domestic semiconductor industry.
• Valero Energy is facing a lawsuit seeking over $1 million in damages following a refinery explosion in Texas.
• Google's top India lawyer has resigned amid increasing regulatory challenges in the country.
• Accenture has deployed Anthropic's AI tool to enhance cybersecurity operations and significantly improve efficiency.
• Tazapay raised $36 million in Series B funding led by Circle Ventures to expand global payment infrastructure.
• Barclays says private credit poses limited systemic risk despite market strains due to its institutional investor base.
• JBS reported flat Q4 earnings but higher sales, missing analyst expectations on profit.
• Western LNG players like Venture Global, Cheniere Energy, and Shell are benefiting from higher gas prices driven by Middle East supply disruptions.
• Warner Bros Discovery is launching HBO Max in 12 new Asia-Pacific markets.
• Syrah Resources plans to raise $72 million to fund graphite operations and support expansion.
• China has restricted travel of Manus AI founders during a review of its acquisition by Meta.

Analyst recommendations:

• Adobe Inc.: William Blair downgrades to market perform from outperform.
• Avalonbay Communities, Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 208 to USD 203.
• Eqt Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 74.
• Equity Residential: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt with a price target raised from USD 72 to USD 74.
• Fiserv, Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
• Global Payments Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
• Icon Public Limited Company: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 100 to USD 130.
• Qualcomm, Inc.: Bernstein downgrades to market perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 175 to USD 140.
• Somnigroup International Inc.: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and reduces the target price from USD 90 to USD 88.
• The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 70 to USD 67.
• The Timken Company: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral with a target price of USD 100.
• The Tjx Companies: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
• Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 262 to USD 285.
• Bellring Brands, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 30 to USD 19.
• Chewy: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 38 to USD 28.
• Mccormick & Company, Incorporated: HSBC maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 69 to USD 55.
• Oklo Inc.: UBS maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 95 to USD 60.
• Upstart Holdings, Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 66 to USD 51.
• Wingstop Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 325 to USD 250.