With oil demand expected to plateau around 2030, gas demand will keep rising throughout the period. The paradox is that this growth trajectory is taking shape at the very moment disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are cutting off Qatari supply, which could make 2026 the very first year of contraction in global LNG ever recorded.

Frédéric Lorec, equity analyst at AlphaValue, says, "the key point here is not just the 700m-tonne number in itself, but the divergence from oil". In his opinion two trajectories are pulling in opposite directions.

On oil, demand is expected to plateau at 102 Mb/d (million barrels per day) around 2030, followed by a gradual decline under the IEA's STEPS (stated policies) scenario in the World Energy Outlook 2025. By contrast, OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2026 (published June 18) sees no plateau at all, projecting demand rising to 124 Mb/d by 2050. Still, supply already looks positioned to comfortably exceed demand regardless.

"We favor the IEA view, which is more consistent with the real-world behavior of the major oil companies (the majors). Oil demand would reach a plateau around 2030 before slowly declining (despite Indian demand), while LNG would keep growing through 2050," he says.

That growth would be supported by three main drivers:

- power generation: notably the shift from coal to gas in Asia, as well as generation capacity built to meet electricity demand from data centers and AI;

- petrochemicals: where gas serves as feedstock (feedstock) for expanding ethylene and ammonia capacity;

- heavy and maritime transport: LNG bunkering (bunkering) gaining market share in shipping.

This asymmetry is reshaping capital allocation at integrated majors: on one side, discipline on oil volumes and a value-over-volume mindset; on the other, targeted LNG growth. Divestments of lower-return oil assets continue to stack up:

- bp is reportedly negotiating an exit from its mature fields in the UK North Sea (talks are underway with Ithaca Energy, around $2.7bn).

- TotalEnergies has sold its West of Shetland assets in the UK and is withdrawing from mature fields in Nigeria and Congo. The French oil giant has formalized its strategy around two pillars: oil and gas (mainly LNG) on one side, and integrated power on the other, targeting energy growth of about 4% per year through 2030;

- Shell has made gas the core of its near-term growth, targeting annual growth of 4% to 5% through 2030 and up to 12m tonnes of additional capacity.

Oil: a plateau under pressure, a near-term geopolitical premium

For Frédéric Lorec, oil offers the reverse image of gas: "Demand is expected to reach a plateau around 2030 before slowly declining, but the near term remains dominated by the geopolitical premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz. In a slow de-escalation scenario, Brent would trade in a higher range, around $70 to $80 a barrel, before easing back toward its structural plateau as spare capacity and non-OPEC supply reassert themselves. A fresh escalation, including a renewed blockade, remains a very real possibility and would push that range higher".