Oil Prices Head for Biggest Weekly Loss in Nine -2-

0842 GMT - China might weather the oil-price shock better than its regional peers, UOB's Ho Woei Chen says. This is supported by its large domestic buffers, including its oil reserves and more diverse energy mix such as coal and renewables, the economist says. On the macro front, UOB says still-low domestic inflation should cushion the impact of higher global crude prices, while government controls on refined fuel prices and room for subsidies could further limit inflation pressure. ([e-mail])

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Crude Volumes in Middle East Gulf Little Changed After Cease-Fire -- Market Talk

0756 GMT - The volume of crude and condensate sitting on water in the Middle East Gulf remains little changed since the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire, according to Kpler data. "The market wanted to price a reopening [of Hormuz] but could not hold it," says Emmanuel Belostrino, head of global crude and geopolitical market data at Kpler. "The reason was visible in the data, in the absence of movement on the water." Fleet metrics show more than 130 million barrels across roughly 80 laden tankers as of Thursday, as access through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted. ([e-mail])

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Gold Set for Volatile Near Term But Long-Term Outlook Holds Firm -- Market Talk

0732 GMT - Gold is likely to remain volatile in the short-term as investors react to shifting geopolitical signals, though the longer-term outlook is supportive. "Since the conflict began, gold has fallen around 10%, underscoring how macro headwinds, notably higher real yields and a firmer U.S. dollar have outweighed safe?haven demand," analysts at ING say. Elevated borrowing costs tend to reduce the appeal of nonyielding assets such as gold, while a stronger dollar makes the metal more expensive for overseas buyers. Looking ahead, however, analysts expect continued support from sustained central bank purchases, reserve diversification, and expectations that real interest rates are unlikely to remain restrictive indefinitely. ([e-mail])

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Gold Set for Weekly Gain Ahead of U.S.-Iran Talks -- Market Talk

0721 GMT - Gold prices fall in early European trading, though the metal remains on track for a weekly gain of 2% as investors await greater clarity from upcoming U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend. A fragile two-week cease-fire continues to underpin market uncertainty, with futures in New York down 0.9% to $4,775.20 a troy ounce. However, Brent crude is heading for a sharp weekly decline of nearly 11%, helping to ease concerns about elevated energy costs and broader inflation pressures. The latest U.S. economic data also tempered worries over the monetary policy outlook, according to some market watchers. "The U.S. personal consumption expenditures prices index didn't reflect the recent surge in energy prices," ANZ analysts say. Investors now await CPI data due later on Friday. ([e-mail])

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Oil Rises Ahead of Iran-U.S. Talks -- Market Talk

0709 GMT - Oil prices rise but remain below $100 a barrel ahead of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend. "What gets agreed there, specifically whether a workable vessel transit protocol emerges, is the single variable that determines whether this backlog starts to clear," says Emmanuel Belostrino, head of global crude and geopolitical market data at Kpler. In early European trading, Brent crude rises 1% to $96.85 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.8% to $98.65 a barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, while supply disruptions keep markets nervous. An Iranian attack on the East-West Pipeline--currently Saudi Arabia's primary export outlet--lead to a loss of around 700,000 barrels a day in throughput.([e-mail])

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Brent-WTI Front-Month Spread Could Normalize If Cease-Fire Holds -- Market Talk

0224 GMT - The Brent-WTI front-month spread is likely to normalize if the recently agreed U.S.-Iran cease-fire holds, says Hamad Hussain, economist at Capital Economics. Brent typically trades at a premium to WTI crude oil, but the pattern has been upended since the start of the conflict. Brent crude is at $96.48 a barrel and WTI crude is at $98.77 a barrel. The inverted spread measures the difference between the prices of Brent for June delivery and WTI for May delivery as their contracts expire on different days. However, WTI's premium over Brent has widened amid significant near-term tightness in the oil market due to the loss of supply from the Middle East and expectations that conditions will loosen over the next couple of months, he says. ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Falls on Rising Supply, Demand Concerns -- Market Talk

0213 GMT - Iron ore futures decline in Asian trade. Prices are likely weighed by rising supply and doubts over demand prospects in China amid shrinking steel margins, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Belinda Allen in a note. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falls 0.2% to 754.5 yuan a metric ton. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-10-26 0844ET