Oddo BHF Remains Positive on Danone for Its Resilience
Oddo BHF reiterates its "outperform" rating on Danone with an unchanged price target of 84 euros, continuing to believe that "the resilience of profitable growth is not yet fully valued," with a 2026 PE ratio below 19 times.
Following a company contact, the research firm anticipates a fourth quarter that will be less robust than initially expected, but which should still allow Danone to deliver its ninth consecutive quarter of organic growth above 4%, with a positive volume/mix effect.
"Furthermore, growth should be fairly broad-based across country business units, supporting the perception of improved operational control, even if there are still areas that need improvement such as Creamers and Plant Based USA," the analyst adds.
According to Oddo BHF, the continuation of this resilience quarter after quarter should support the rerating trajectory that has been underway for the past three years. However, it is lowering its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by -2% and -3%, respectively, due to currency effects and refinancing.
Danone is one the world leading food-processing groups. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- dairy products and plant products (49.2%; No. 1 worldwide): fresh fermented milk products, creams, products and drinks of plant origin (based in particular on soya, almond, hazelnut, rice, oats and coconut);
- specialized nutrition products (32.6%): baby foods (No. 1 worldwide; foods for infants and young children in addition to breastfeeding) and medical nutrition products (No. 2 in Europe; foods for people suffering from certain pathologies or people weakened by age);
- bottled water (18.2%; No. 2 worldwide): natural water, aromatized water or enriched in vitamins (brands Evian, Volvic, Badoit, Aqua, etc.).
At the end of 2024, the group had more than 180 production sites throughout the world.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (8.4%), Europe (26.5%), North America (24%), China/Japan/Australia/New Zealand (13.5%), Latin America (11.1%) and other (16.5%).
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