November's Final Verdict

A rare freeze at CME Group's data centers halted trading in key U.S. futures markets, offering a jarring reminder of how fragile the plumbing of global finance can be. The outage arrived on an otherwise quiet post-Thanksgiving session, just as investors were grappling with uneven economic signals and the kickoff to the holiday shopping season. With November's market fate still hanging in the balance, the episode underscores how even brief disruptions can ripple through a system already searching for direction.

An unexpected paralysis at CME Group, the world's largest derivatives marketplace, jolted financial markets. A cooling failure at the firm's CyrusOne data centres late on Thursday froze trading in futures tied to America's flagship equity benchmarks, as well as a swathe of currencies and commodities.

Thankfully, the disruption hit on what was likely to be a sleepy trading day, since today is a truncated post-Thanksgiving session. Trading is open from 9:30 am to 1:00 pm ET. Needless to say, many market participants are away, enjoying a long weekend. Volumes are typically thin.

Beyond the technical snafu, markets were digesting the start of the crucial holiday shopping season and a muddled macroeconomic picture. Retailers were buoyed by resilient online spending and the lure of steep discounts, even as broader equity indices navigated their weakest month since early spring.

Will November 2025 end in the green or the red? That question remains unanswered as we head into the last trading day of the month, with performance differentials still minimal. 

The recent sharp rebound has not entirely erased the early-November air pocket. The S&P 500 (-0.4%) and the Dow Jones (-0.3%) have little ground to recover to claw their way into the black and extend a seven-month winning streak. The Nasdaq 100, however, remains down 2.4% for the month, making the task significantly harder.

Across Europe, the pan-regional Stoxx Europe 600 index has gained a modest 0.54% compared with its level on 31 October. It's a slim cushion, but one that offers a glimmer of hope for a fifth consecutive month of gains. 

Looking ahead, December, which begins on Monday, is statistically one of the strongest months for equities. According to Yardeni Research, over the past 97 years, the US market has ended December higher on 70 occasions and lower on just 27. It is, by far, the month least likely to post a decline. April, the next best performer, has a gain/loss ratio of 62/36. That said, December's advances tend to be more muted than those of other months, and its declines similarly less severe. Notably, the bulk of gains are often concentrated in the week leading up to Christmas, in what is commonly known as the "Santa Claus Rally". It's as if investors are treating themselves to a small gift before year-end quiet descends.

In other news, Donald Trump addressed several topics yesterday. Following an attack on members of the National Guard in Washington DC, he announced a halt to immigration from the "third world". In a different vein, he suggested that his administration could reduce, or even eliminate, income tax over the next two years, funded by revenues from tariffs. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin signaled openness to peace negotiations in Ukraine, based on proposals from the White House. The highly controversial US envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected in Moscow next week.

On the macroeconomic front, several European countries, including France and Italy, are releasing preliminary inflation data for November. Unlike in the US, where rate cuts are under consideration, European investors see no such moves on the horizon. Inflation figures therefore currently carry less weight for financial markets.

In the Asia-Pacific region, markets ended the week on a mixed note, in the absence of guidance from Wall Street. Japan, India and Taiwan posted modest gains. Australia was flat. South Korea saw notable selling pressure, with the KOSPI down 1.5%, while Hong Kong slipped 0.3%. Futures on Wall Street are slightly bullish, and so are European indices.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: in Japan, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail orders, and retail sales; in France, consumer confidence, economic confidence, EU harmonized CPI, PPI, and private sector jobs; in Switzerland, GDP and KOF leading indicator; in Germany, unemployment change, EU harmonized CPI, and CPI. See the full calendar here.

• Dollar index: 99,766
• Gold: $4,170
• Crude Oil (BRENT): $62.98 (WTI) $58.94
• United States 10 years: 4.00%
• BITCOIN: $91,670

In corporate news:

• CME Group halted trading across most markets due to a cooling issue at its CyrusOne data center, although BrokerTec EU trading remains active.
• Google withdrew its EU antitrust complaint against Microsoft after the European Commission launched a broader probe into Microsoft's cloud practices under the Digital Markets Act.
• Armani appointed a new board, including non-family executives, to guide the company through a succession plan and prepare for a 15% stake sale following Giorgio Armani's passing.
• Baidu began layoffs across multiple divisions after a Q3 loss, with AI and cloud-related roles mostly spared as the company restructures to focus more on artificial intelligence.
• Amazon and Flipkart are expanding into financial services in India, with Amazon targeting small business loans and Flipkart planning buy-now-pay-later offerings, challenging traditional banks.
• Apple notified the EU that its Ads and Maps services meet thresholds for potential gatekeeper designation under the Digital Markets Act and submitted rebuttals contesting the designation.
• Jefferies is under SEC investigation over potential conflicts and investor disclosures linked to its exposure to bankrupt auto parts maker First Brands.
• Tesla opened its first full-service center in India, located in Gurugram, combining sales, service, delivery, and charging in one facility.
• Oracle and Vantage are in talks with banks to secure a $38 billion loan to fund additional OpenAI data center infrastructure.
• Huawei and ZTE have secured 5G equipment deals in Vietnam, signaling warming China-Vietnam ties amid concerns from Western governments over national security risks.
• Klarna formed a multi-market partnership with Lufthansa to offer flexible travel payment options across several countries.
• JPMorgan Chase announced plans to build a new three-million square foot headquarters in London's Canary Wharf to accommodate 12,000 employees.
• Citigroup has been selected by Saudi Aramco to assist with a planned multibillion-dollar sale of its oil export and storage terminals business.
• Alibaba launched its Quark AI Glasses in China, integrating its Qwen AI assistant to offer hands-free support.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Amd (Advanced Micro Devices): President Capital Management Corp maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 240 to USD 264.
• Dell Technologies Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 150 to USD 160.
• Lyft, Inc.: Baptista Research upgrades to outperform from underperform with a price target raised from USD 15.80 to USD 23.80..
• Qualcomm, Inc.: Baptista Research upgrades to hold from underperform with a price target raised from USD 178.20 to USD 188.10..
• Broadcom Inc.: Aletheia Capital Limited maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 400 to USD 500.
• Hubspot, Inc.: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 519 to USD 397.
• Paycom Software, Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to buy from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 271 to USD 212.90.
• The Sherwin-Williams Company: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 407 to USD 392.