In New York, WTI crude is around $96 a barrel. Brent is above $104. That is lower than the worst levels of the past few weeks, but only slightly. If investors really believed the crisis was fading, oil would be falling much faster. Instead, it is staying elevated, which tells you traders still see a serious risk that the conflict could flare up again.

Trump's credibility is at stake here. He has now repeated a familiar pattern: issue a hard ultimatum, then step back and offer more time. Earlier in the crisis, investors could still treat that as a rough playbook. Threaten, retreat, stabilize. Some even built trades around it. But that approach works only while people believe the White House is still controlling events, and that belief is fading.

Yesterday's trading made that plain: Wall Street swung sharply as investors tried to make sense of mixed signals. Hopes briefly improved after Iran's response to the U.S. 15-point plan suggested that indirect dialogue was at least still alive. Then Trump cooled that optimism by saying Iran wanted a peace deal very badly, while adding that Washington was not sure it wanted one. That is a remarkable message to send in the middle of a war-driven oil shock: maybe we want a deal, maybe we don't. One can see why markets are developing trust issues.

The damage was clear by the close. On Thursday, the S&P 500 and the Dow both fell more than 1%. The Nasdaq ended more than 10% below its record high, confirming a correction. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.5%, dragged down not only by the broader oil-driven selloff but also by a separate plunge in major technology and social media stocks. Meta fell 8% after losing two major liability cases related to social media's impact on younger users. Nvidia dropped 4.2%, Micron 7%, and Applied Materials 8.3%. Europe was weak too: the STOXX Europe 600 lost 1.1%, the CAC 40 fell 1%, and the DAX dropped 1.5%.

Today's futures suggest no rebound is in sight. Dow futures was down 0.3%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures was down 0.7%. The broader point is that this conflict is turning into a lose-lose situation in the short run. The U.S. may have shown military strength, Iran may have suffered conventional damage, but strategy is not only about who can hit hardest. It is also about who comes out with more leverage. And here the picture is less flattering for Washington.

Iran's geographic position gives it influence over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. That leverage has become even more valuable during this war. Some analysts now think Tehran could emerge weakened militarily but stronger economically and politically in one crucial area: its ability to impose lasting costs on the global economy. There is even discussion of a permanent transit toll as part of the negotiations. If that sounds like the kind of thing Washington was supposed to prevent, that is because it is.

This is why Trump's repeated delays are not calming investors. The issue is not only whether he strikes, it is whether the United States still has a clear path to an outcome that looks like a win. A campaign can succeed tactically and still fail strategically. In fact, that is often how these stories go. That uncertainty is shaping decisions in Washington: the Pentagon is weighing the deployment of up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Defense Department officials familiar with the planning. The aim is to give Donald Trump more military options even as he considers peace talks with Tehran.

Meanwhile, Big Tech and other corporate heavyweights are driving the day's headlines. Apple is reportedly considering opening Siri to rival AI systems while also reworking parts of its hardware strategy and trying to retain key engineers; Microsoft is said to be freezing hiring in its main cloud and sales units, and OpenAI's nascent advertising business has already crossed $100 million in annualized revenue. Amazon is in talks with American Airlines over upgraded in-flight connectivity, while Micron is reportedly exploring a deal for a Japan Display plant, Nvidia remains at the center of scrutiny over restricted AI chips reaching China, and Huawei's latest AI chip is said to be performing well enough to attract planned orders from ByteDance and Alibaba. Elsewhere, Netflix has raised U.S. subscription prices.

Today's economic calendar is light, which means geopolitics will keep driving sentiment. Investors will watch U.S. wholesale and retail inventory data for February, and later the final March reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Comments from regional Fed officials Thomas Barkin, Mary Daly, and Anna Paulson may also get attention.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Gfk Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales in the United Kingdom; in Spain, preliminary annual and monthly inflation rates; in France, unemployment benefit claims; in the United States, retail inventories excluding autos, wholesale inventories, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and Fed Daly's speech. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99.980
  • Gold: $4,423
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $104.26 (WTI) $96.37
  • United States 10 years: 4.46%
  • BITCOIN: $67,825

In corporate news:

  • Pony.ai said it will more than double its robotaxi fleet to over 3,000 vehicles across more than 20 cities in 2026, launch its first European commercial service in Zagreb with Verne and Uber, and reported its first quarterly profit.
  • Indonesia's new social-media rules for under-16s are set to hit platforms including Roblox, Meta's Facebook and Instagram, Alphabet's YouTube, TikTok, and X, although implementation details remain unclear just before the measures take effect.
  • ASE Technology said its unit ASE Electronics (M) will acquire 100% of Analog Devices Sdn. Bhd. for $108.8 million.
  • Micron Technology is reportedly in talks to acquire a Japan Display LCD plant that could be repurposed for chip assembly and testing, though both companies declined to comment.
  • OpenAI's pilot advertising business has reportedly surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue, with expansion tests planned in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • American Airlines is reportedly in talks with Amazon and Starlink to upgrade Wi-Fi and in-flight entertainment on narrow-body aircraft, with a decision potentially coming in April.
  • Huawei's new 950PR AI chip has reportedly performed well in testing, prompting planned orders from ByteDance and Alibaba as the company prepares mass production next month.
  • Anthropic won temporary court protection against U.S. government actions that would have restricted agencies from using its AI tools, allowing its products to remain available while the legal case proceeds.
  • Mastercard is reportedly seeking to sell the real-time payments business it bought from Nets Group in 2019, potentially at a valuation well below the original purchase price.
  • Netflix has raised U.S. prices across all subscription tiers, including its ad-supported plan, standard plan, premium plan, and extra-member fees.
  • Oracle signed a new 116,000-square-foot office lease in Nashville, expanding its city footprint to about 2,000 seats as it develops its new headquarters there.
  • A cyclone in Western Australia disrupted LNG production at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone plants and Woodside's North West Shelf project, adding pressure to already tight global gas supplies.
  • Brown-Forman said it is in merger talks with Pernod Ricard on a potential tie-up it described as similar to a merger of equals, though no agreement has been reached.
  • China's top science body said it will boycott NeurIPS after the conference barred submissions from U.S.-sanctioned entities such as Huawei and SMIC.
  • Procurement records show Chinese universities, including some linked to the military, bought Super Micro servers containing restricted Nvidia AI chips despite U.S. export controls.
  • Surging sulphur prices are boosting margins for Chinese refiners including Sinopec and Hengli Petrochemical, partially offsetting broader pressure from higher crude costs and fuel-export restrictions.
  • Microsoft is freezing hiring in its main cloud and sales divisions, according to The Information.
  • Apple is considering opening Siri to competing artificial intelligence systems, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Apple is discontinuing the Mac Pro and offering substantial bonuses to its engineers to prevent them from leaving for ChatGPT and similar platforms.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • BROWN-FORMAN: Citi upgrades to neutral from sell and raises the target price from USD 24 to USD 28. 
  • Chord Energy Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from USD 150 to USD 155.
  • Conocophillips: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 145.
  • Masimo Corporation: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
  • Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 68.
  • Quanta Services, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 600 to USD 650.
  • Affirm Holdings, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 110 to USD 85.
  • Cheniere Energy, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 279 to USD 338.
  • Draftkings Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 35 to USD 27.40.
  • Factset Research Systems, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 290 to USD 210.
  • Ge Vernova Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 785 to USD 1000.
  • On Holding Ag: Evercore ISI maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 58 to USD 45.
  • Sofi Technologies, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 35 to USD 27.
  • Unity Software Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 38 to USD 29.
  • Upstart Holdings, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 45 to USD 29.
  • Venture Global, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 11 to USD 19.