He opened his presentation with a stark observation: the current crisis has transcended the energy sphere to become a systemic shock affecting all commodities. In the short term, tensions are primarily crystallizing around the strategic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Julien Hoarau emphasized that this passage is not reserved solely for oil tankers and LNG carriers. It sees the transit of a multitude of critical resources, notably petroleum and petrochemical derivatives, as well as aluminum.

Infrastructure Vulnerability

Another striking point of his analysis regarding this conflict concerns the proliferation of attacks against energy infrastructure. Supported by mapping data, he detailed the offensives carried out in March, categorized by type: storage sites and export terminals, production fields, and oil and gas pipelines (see visual below).

He cited the attack on the Ras Laffan liquefaction plant in Qatar as an example, which represents 17% of the country's LNG production capacity. According to QatarEnergy, the site will remain out of service for an estimated period of 3 to 5 years.

Flow Analysis: LNG vs. Oil

Turning to the analysis of gas and oil energy flows transiting through Hormuz, Julien Hoarau qualified the impact on the gas market. He noted that the bulk of Qatari LNG exports are destined for Asia. Europe's share of Qatari LNG exports is actually very low. Although Qatar is a major player (2% of the global market), the affected volume represents only 3% of global supply. The shock is real, but geographically targeted.

Regarding oil, the situation is more critical, as the Middle East accounts for 23% of global supply. "Despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil flows continue thanks to bypass routes, but their capacity is limited. We have lost approximately half of all the oil that transits through the Strait, representing a production drop of nearly 10 million barrels per day for this month of March. This is substantial for a market where consumption fluctuates between 100 and 105 million barrels per day," he observed.