(CEO Statement and Outlook)

Finnish cartonboard manufacturer Metsä Board reported lower-than-expected revenue for the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA turned negative, but the loss was not as severe as analysts had forecast. The company will not pay a dividend.

Revenue fell by 11.8 percent to €393.5 million (€446.0 million last year). The outcome compares to Vara Research's analyst consensus of €420.2 million.

Adjusted EBITDA amounted to €-9.4 million (€24.6 million), compared to the expected €-16.4 million.

Operating profit stood at €-99.2 million (€-1.7 million), with consensus at €-40.4 million.

Adjusted operating profit was €-34.7 million (€-3.6 million), compared to the expected €-39.7 million.

Net profit after tax was €-94.8 million (€-2.4 million).

Adjusted earnings per share came in at €-0.10 (€-0.03), versus the expected €-0.12.

No ordinary dividend is proposed (previous year: €0.07).

“In 2025, our operations were negatively affected by weak consumer demand, U.S. import tariffs, overcapacity in Europe, and persistently high raw material costs. The situation remained challenging also in the pulp market, which had a significant impact on Metsä Board's results both directly and through its ownership stake in Metsä Fibre. Towards the end of the year, cost levels declined thanks to both falling raw material prices and our own efficiency measures,” commented CEO Esa Kaikkonen.

Metsä Board assesses that cautious consumer purchasing behavior will continue to weigh on packaging demand over the next three to six months. In Europe, the market is pressured by overcapacity, while import tariffs in North America are dampening demand for cartonboard.

Global demand for market pulp remains weak due to low capacity utilization, and production restrictions may continue in Europe. At the same time, falling pulpwood prices in Finland and Sweden are expected to strengthen profitability from 2026 onwards.

Currency effects, including hedging, are expected to have a clearly negative impact on results, with an estimated effect of around minus €20 million in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Metsä Board.

Metsä Board, MEURQ4-2025ConsensusChange vs. consensusQ4-2024Change
Net sales393.5420.2-6.4%446.0-11.8%
Adjusted EBITDA-9.4-16.424.6
Adjusted EBITDA margin5.5%
Operating profit-99.2-40.4-1.7
Adjusted operating profit-34.7-39.7-3.6
Net profit-94.8-2.4
Adjusted earnings per share, EUR-0.10-0.12-0.03
Ordinary annual dividend per share, EUR00.07
Consensus data from Vara Research