For 2026, Merck expects adjusted operating earnings (Ebitda) between 5.5 and 6.0 billion euros. Excluding currency effects, earnings could drop by as much as four percent in the worst-case scenario. Revenue is expected to reach between 20.0 and 21.1 billion euros, at best matching last year's level. The outlook for the current year disappointed investors. Merck shares fell as much as 2.7 percent at their lowest point, making them one of the biggest losers in the DAX. The 2026 guidance implies a cut to consensus estimates, according to analysts at JP Morgan. However, the disappointment was at least partially anticipated.
A key reason for the cautious forecast is competition from generic versions of Mavenclad in the US. The company is conservatively assuming that revenue from the drug there will drop off completely starting this month. "We have a number of generic manufacturers waiting in the wings. They could start selling tomorrow," von Roeder explained. About half of Mavenclad's sales of 1.2 billion euros last year were generated in the US. Outgoing CEO Belén Garijo identified the division for rare diseases, established through the acquisition of SpringWorks, as a new pillar of growth for the healthcare business.
FINAL RESULTS FOR "COVID-CEO" GARIJO
In the completed 2025 fiscal year, Merck kept its operating earnings stable at 6.1 billion euros despite negative currency effects. Revenue dipped slightly by 0.3 percent to 21.1 billion euros. Since the company generates just over a quarter of its revenue in North America, the weak dollar reduces earnings when converted into the reporting currency, the euro. Without currency and portfolio effects, operating profit would have risen by 5.6 percent and revenue by 3.1 percent. Merck particularly benefited from strong sales of products for pharmaceutical manufacturing. Bottom line, net profit fell by six percent year-on-year to 2.6 billion euros. Nevertheless, shareholders are to receive an unchanged dividend of 2.20 euros per share.
This was Garijo's final set of results. Her successor, current head of the electronics division Kai Beckmann, will take over in May. Garijo, who assumed office in 2021 in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic and described herself as a "Covid-CEO," successfully steered the company through the crisis. Merck benefited from a special boom in demand for its products for the pharmaceutical and biotech industries during this period.
Garijo referred to a "volatile world" shaped by the pandemic, the AI revolution, and geopolitical fragmentation. Merck not only held its ground during this period but emerged stronger. CFO von Roeder praised Garijo for safely guiding the company through these turbulent times. The strategy of operating with local production in each region makes the company more resilient to geopolitical disruptions.
"In 2025, we once again demonstrated our resilience – despite significant geopolitical challenges and strong currency headwinds," said Garijo, who will soon take the helm at French pharmaceutical group Sanofi. She shielded Merck from US tariffs with an agreement with the US government that exempted the pharma business from duties. Regarding possible refunds for other divisions after the US Supreme Court declared President Donald Trump's tariffs unlawful, Garijo said: "We are not considering refunds." Only the Life Science and Electronics divisions were affected by tariffs, CFO von Roeder had previously explained.
(Reported by Patricia Weiß, edited by Olaf Brenner. For inquiries, please contact our editorial team at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for politics and economy) or frankfurt.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for companies and markets).)
