All eyes will be on the other side of the Atlantic early this afternoon, where Jefferies expects the annual inflation rate to remain at 2.7% for December in headline terms in the United States, while rising by 0.1 percentage point from November to 2.7% on a core basis.

The figure will be all the more closely watched as an increasingly toxic climate has taken hold in recent months between the White House and the Fed. Donald Trump has repeatedly urged Jerome Powell to cut policy rates, while Powell has responded that the Fed is independent and tasked with keeping inflation below 2%.

A cautious start to the year

"For investors, this start to 2026 is marked by a global economy supported by widespread monetary stimulus measures and by solid growth in emerging markets,” Christopher Dembik, investment strategy adviser at Pictet AM, noted last night.

"According to our forecasts, US economic expansion should reach 1.5% this year, which is below the consensus estimate of 2%. This more cautious outlook reflects our forecasts for a slowdown in US household spending,” he adds.

On the Old Continent, Pictet AM believes that the euro zone economy should rebound as households' excess savings decline and output picks up, albeit with some lag in response to earlier rate cuts. "However, the spillover effects of fiscal easing, particularly in Germany, will take time to materialize,” the specialist adds.

The earnings season begins, stocks on the move

Against this backdrop, the earnings season starting today will be closely watched by market participants. The starting whistle will be blown by JP Morgan Chase today in the US, followed tomorrow by Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

In European corporate news, Orsted gains 5.6% after a US judge allowed the Danish group to resume its offshore wind project off Rhode Island.
Trustpilot advances 7.5% after saying it expects 20% annual revenue growth thanks to rising bookings. Zalando gains 6%, supported by a Barclays note that upgrades the stock to buy (from neutral), while raising its target price to €35 from €28 previously.

In contrast, Thales slips 1.8% in Paris, hit by a Deutsche Bank downgrade to hold (from buy), with its target price reduced to €280 from €285.
Vinci and Eiffage fall more than 3.2% in Paris as a government framework bill is said to be considering making motorway concessions contribute to funding rail and secondary roads. Bank of America has lowered its recommendation on Eiffage to neutral from buy, while its call on Vinci is cut to underperform from outperform.

In London, Brent crude trades at $64.5 a barrel (+0.5%). Gold is hovering just below $4,600 an ounce. Finally, the euro is steady against the dollar, at around $1.166.