After a month of hostilities without a clear direction or concrete political progress, markets saw the White House occupant's few words as their lifeline, seemingly sweeping under the rug the long litany of unfulfilled promises, empty threats, endless ultimatums, and other haphazard declarations. The promise of a swift end to the war, while seductive, has yet to be verified on the ground: missiles continue to be exchanged between Israel and Iran, spilling over into the Gulf monarchies.

The war of words, meanwhile, is also in full swing. Donald Trump announced in the afternoon that the Iranian regime had requested a ceasefire, before adding belligerently: "we will look into the matter when the Strait of Hormuz is free and secure. Until then, we are reducing Iran to nothing, or, as they say, taking them back to the Stone Age!".

Tehran immediately reacted by denouncing Trump's "ridiculous displays" and reaffirming the closure of Hormuz.

Regardless, the market easing is very real, with the VIX retreating toward 24 points (-4.7%), while oil prices are also contracting sharply, with Brent down 1.5% and WTI down 1.8%, at 102 USD and 98 USD per barrel respectively.

The aviation sector is no longer grounded

The easing of crude prices sent the aviation sector soaring, after it had been struggling since the start of the conflict. In Europe, Air France-KLM gained 8.9%, ahead of Lufthansa (+8.1%), Finnair (+6.9%), Wizz Air (+7%), Rolls-Royce (+6.7%), IAG (+6%), and easyJet (+5.2%).

Airbus also gained 4.4%, benefiting from an analysis by Wells Fargo, which initiated coverage of the stock with a "market weight" rating and a price target of 175 euros.

In Paris, the CAC 40 ended up 2.1%, between London (+1.7%) and Frankfurt (+2.6%). The Parisian index was largely supported by the banking sector, with a 6.8% gain for Société Générale and 5.4% for BNP Paribas.

This morning, Fitch Ratings also indicated that major European banks were entering the current period of high uncertainty and volatility related to the war in Iran from a position of strength.

"However, the impact of an adverse scenario - in which the conflict would extend until the end of June - on economic growth and inflation outlooks could lead to downward revisions of Fitch's forecasts for profitability and asset quality, even if the institutions' ratings should generally remain resilient," the agency warned.

Oil companies, on the other hand, were heavily impacted by the decline in crude prices. Equinor shed 5.1%, behind Maurel (-5.9%) and TotalEnergies (-4.1%), which confirmed its fuel price cap until April 7.
Finally, BP also dropped 5%, suffering from a downgrade by AlphaValue/Baader Europe, which moved from "buy" to "sell" on the stock.

A deluge of statistics to digest in Europe....

The day was also dense on the statistical front. The Eurozone unemployment rate rose from 6.1% in January to 6.2% in February 2026, according to seasonally adjusted data from Eurostat, while the EU rate remained stable month-on-month at 5.9%.

Furthermore, the growth rate of the manufacturing sector accelerated in March, whereas a contraction had been feared. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in February to 51.6 points in March, a level not seen in 45 months. Analysts had expected a decline to 49.4 points.

In Germany, the manufacturing PMI performed better than expected. It rose from 50.9 points in February to 52.2 in March, while analysts were expecting a smaller improvement to 51.7 points. At 52.2 points, it is at its highest level since May 2022.

In France, the manufacturing PMI stood at the 50 mark, synonymous with the status quo, in March, thus remaining close to its February level (50.1) and indicating a stagnation in the sector's economic situation.

... and in the United States

Across the Atlantic, the ADP private sector employment survey reported that in March, the U.S. economy created 62,000 jobs against expectations of only 41,000.

Also in the United States, retail sales for February grew by 0.6%, which is 0.1 percentage points more than expected (+0.5%), following a 0.1% decline in January, a figure revised upward from an initial estimate of -0.2%.

"Tax refunds, which began to be paid out in February and are larger than last year due to the Big Beautiful Bill, may explain this positive surprise," says Bastien Drut, Head of Strategy and Economic Research at CPR AM.

Meanwhile, the ISM index rose from 52.4 in February to 52.7 in March, slightly exceeding expectations (52.5). As a reminder, the 50-point mark separates growth (>50) from contraction ( < 50) in activity.

Finally, data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil inventories in the United States stood at 461.6 million barrels for the week of March 23, signaling an increase of 5.5 million barrels compared to the previous week. This figure came as a surprise, as analysts were expecting a decline of 1.3 million barrels.