The customs duty saga took a new turn yesterday with the White House's publication of a new list of surcharges targeting countries deemed uncooperative during the current round of negotiations. The United States had promised to make a decision on 9 July with a binary approach: either you negotiate with sufficient enthusiasm and you get a preferential rate, or you pretend to negotiate and you get a punitive rate. As things did not move quickly enough, Washington pulled out its Plan B, also a familiar one, by announcing tariffs but postponing their implementation until 1 August. The message is clear: there are roughly three weeks left to find common ground.

Otherwise? A 25% levy on imports into the United States from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Tunisia and Kazakhstan. 30% on exports from South Africa and 36% from Thailand and Cambodia. Or 40% on goods arriving from Laos and Myanmar. A total of 14 countries, with percentages identical or relatively close to those announced on 2 April. The EU, which is still negotiating, has escaped the customs bazooka for now. Perhaps Brussels has shown signs of goodwill? Or perhaps the Europeans have gained time thanks to commitments made within NATO? In any case, Politico believes that the EU could make a 10% global surcharge permanent, with exemptions for certain sectors.

At this stage, only two agreements have been sealed (with the United Kingdom and Vietnam), while a third (with China) is more or less mapped out. Unless a miracle happens in the next 48 hours, Peter Navarro's goal of signing 90 agreements in 90 days is seriously compromised.

Donald Trump's announcements, which were made during the session yesterday afternoon, were not really welcomed by Wall Street. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%, while the Dow Jones lost 0.9%. The US markets had been struggling to find reasons to fall recently. Perhaps the barrage of potential tariffs provided them with one. A few hours earlier, Europe had closed in disarray, with financial, defence and technology-heavy indices such as the German DAX, the Italian MIB and the French CAC40 rising, while others fell slightly.

Despite the decline in equities, the US financial market did not panic. Bond yields were only slightly tense. To understand the emotional dimension of the market, we still need to juggle relative and absolute terms. The tariffs negotiated are likely to be lower than those outlined by Trump in April, which is relatively good news. But in absolute terms, tomorrow's global trade is likely to be more heavily taxed than it is today. It is difficult to see how prices will not end up suffering.

But in the short term, there is a slight sense of optimism in Asia-Pacific this morning. Why? Because investors want to believe that history will repeat itself: agreements will eventually be reached. Japan is up 0.3% and South Korea 1.8%. Representatives from both countries have indicated that they will continue discussions with a view to reaching an agreement by 1 August. Hong Kong, for its part, is up 0.6%. India is stable and Australia is losing ground after a surprise monetary policy move. The RBA kept its rate unchanged at 3.85%, while the market had expected a cut to 3.60%. The decision, taken by 6 votes to 3, illustrates the fears that still weigh on price developments in the context of the trade war. This proves that, even among central bankers, the unexpected still has a place. In a fairly classic move, the Australian dollar has started to rise.

Today will be a quiet day for macroeconomic indicators, but geopolitics continues to play out. Donald Trump welcomed Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington. At the same time, the US president promised to supply new defensive weapons to Ukraine after his fruitless talks with Vladimir Putin. In other news, French president Emmanuel Macron will spend three days in the United Kingdom to cement relations between Paris and London. In China, Beijing is considering doubling the quota for the programme allowing local investors to access foreign bonds via Hong Kong, while opening up the facility to non-bank financial institutions. This opening would strengthen financial flows through Chinese markets, in line with the country's development strategy.

Leading indicators are slightly bearish in Europe: despite the strong performance of Asian stock markets, there is a gap to be filled with the United States yesterday.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the current account balance and trade balance in France; the unemployment rate in Switzerland. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.36
  • Gold: US$3,332.21
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$69.03
  • United States 10 years: 4.4%
  • BITCOIN: US$108,179

In corporate news:

  • BP PLC appoints Simon Henry as Non-Executive Director amidst operational issues at its Whiting, Indiana refinery.
  • Sumitomo Corp invests in a UK project for CO2 transportation through pipelines.
  • Novartis receives approval for Coartem and Coartem Baby, the first malaria treatments for young children.
  • UBS contends with lawsuits, including US investor litigation over Credit Suisse and goodwill payments related to Trump trading losses.
  • Ipsos SA acquires InMoment's health division in Germany to expand pharmaceutical and MedTech expertise.
  • Daimler Truck announces a $2.36 billion share buyback program.
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica AG secures $39 million in BARDA funding.
  • Cirsa valued at €2.52 billion in its IPO.
  • Intesa Sanpaolo launches a financing program for businesses employing youth and women, alongside a €70 million share buyback.
  • Health Italia approves the sale of stakes in Banca del Fucino and Rebirth Spa.
  • Apple Inc withdraws Q3 revenue alert as Ruoming Pang departs for Meta.
  • Samsung Electronics acquires Xealth to expand mobile healthcare services, despite a 56% drop in Q2 operating profit and plans a 3.9 trillion won share buyback.

See more news from UK listed companies here