Nonfarm payrolls swelled by 227,000, outstripping the 220,000 predicted by the Bloomberg consensus of economists. The revelation marked a robust rebound from the hurricane and strike-dampened October figure of 12,000, while the unemployment rate nudged up to a still-svelte 4.2%, defying the 4.1% prophecy. Average hourly earnings progressed by 0.4% month-on-month while a 0.3% gain was expected.
This muscular show of labor market health could give the Fed pause in its rate-cutting choreography, despite Jerome Powell's overtures to a more measured approach. But the market's crystal ball - the CME Fedwatch tool - still foresees a 91% likelihood of a rate trim at the December 18 Fed gathering.
Before the labor market's latest act, U.S. equity futures had hinted at a subdued opening. Yet, in a swift volte-face post-release, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq futures all inched up by a modest 0.1%, as if nodding in quiet approval.
The inflation narrative will thicken next Wednesday with the consumer price index's next installment, expected to edge up from October's 2.6% - a subplot in the ongoing economic drama.
On the corporate side, retailers Lululemon Athletica and Ulta Beauty paraded strong quarterly numbers, their pre-market shares pirouetting higher in response.
Despite murmurs of overvaluation, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been scaling new heights, with a 27% ascent since the year's dawn, seemingly on a quest to kiss the sky.
Across the pond, he French stock market, the euro and French debt are resilient despite the fall of the government after a vote of no confidence. This is based on the gamble that France will be governable in the coming months, with limited damage to the economic and social apparatus. French President Emmanuel Macron said that he won’t resigned and explained yesterday on TV that parliamentarians were wrong for having censured the Barnier government, and that he will name the successor to the current Prime Minister “in the coming days”, calling for a “government of general interest”.
Oil prices, meanwhile, took a bow, slipping as OPEC+ opted to delay its production encore. India's central bank conducted a delicate balancing act, holding rates steady while fine-tuning its economic forecasts and causing a slight tremor in its stock indices.
China's markets, after a bout of jitters over stimulus stage fright, bounced back, buoyed by whispers of a central bank rate cut - the most dramatic in a decade, according to the Bloomberg grapevine.
As the week's financial performance drew to a close, the Asia-Pacific markets mostly dipped, save for China's rebound. Europe, on the other hand, ended on a high note, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index taking a modest bow, up 0.2%.
Economic highlights today:
The big focus on the calendar today is on the US employment figures for November.
- Dollar: EUR:0.9451 GBP 0.7831
- Ounce of gold: USD 2,635
- Brent crude: USD 71.43
- 10-year US bond: 4.18
- Bitcoin: USD 98,550
In corporate news :
- Eli Lilly is investing $3 billion to expand its newly acquired manufacturing plant in Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, to increase production of weight-loss and diabetes drugs, amidst a backdrop of declining health care stocks due to jobs report uncertainty.
- Boeing's plea deal concerning the fatal 737 MAX crashes, potentially extending the legal proceedings, while US payrolls are expected to rise following the return of Boeing workers and the end of recent hurricanes, impacting industrial and transportation sector stocks.
- Samsara reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS and revenue, raised its full-year outlook, and announced Q4 EPS and revenue forecasts, yet shares fell after hours.
- Tech stocks fell late Thursday, with notable declines in sector ETFs and Meta Platforms announcing a dividend alongside a partnership with James Cameron's Lightstorm Vision to enhance 3D and mixed reality entertainment for Meta Quest.
- Lululemon Athletica reported mixed Q3 earnings, with better-than-expected results leading to raised FY2024 guidance due to robust holiday sales and strong international demand, despite some reports of earnings below expectations.
- Following the murder of UnitedHealthcare's CEO Brian Thompson outside a Midtown Manhattan hotel, a crowd-sourced investigation has emerged on social media, while the police search for the suspect and the healthcare industry reevaluates its security measures.
- Ulta Beauty reported a Q3 earnings beat with $5.14 per share, exceeding Street estimates and revenue expectations, prompting the company to raise its full-year EPS guidance amid strong holiday season engagement from younger shoppers.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise surpassed quarterly earnings and revenue expectations due to robust demand for AI servers, reported a Q4 EPS of $0.58 and revenue of $8.46B, and saw its shares rise 1.3% following an upgrade by Morgan Stanley.
- Cooper Companies reported a Q4 revenue of $1.02 billion, missing Street estimates of $1.03 billion, and lowered its 2025 revenue forecast due to decreased demand for contact lenses, despite reporting higher non-GAAP earnings of $1.04 per share, up from $0.87 the previous year.
- GitLab Inc. reported a Q3 revenue of $196M, surpassing street estimates of $187.9M, and forecasts a Q4 EPS range of $0.22 - $0.23, indicating that their earnings exceeded expectations.
Analyst recommendations:
- Deere & Company: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of USD 510.
- Frontier Communications Parent, Inc.: Benchmark Co., LLC downgrades to hold from buy.
- Paccar, Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of USD 120.
- Republic Services, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 211 to USD 238.
- American Airlines Group Inc.: Fubon Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from 16.56 to USD 20.88.
- Applovin Corporation: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 335 to USD 460.
- Arista Networks, Inc.: New Street Research LLP maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 475 to USD 120.
- Axon Enterprise, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 600 to USD 800.
- Datadog, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 155 to USD 187.
- Delta Air Lines, Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from 58 to USD 78.
- Docusign, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 60 to USD 90.
- Doordash, Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 175 to USD 215.
- Gitlab Inc.:BTIG maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 63 to USD 86.
- Guidewire Software, Inc.: Raymond James maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 180 to USD 225.
- Lululemon Athletica Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 285 to USD 350.
- Paycom Software, Inc.: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from 181 to USD 229.
- Royal Caribbean Group: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 250 to USD 310.
- Salesforce.com, Inc.: CICC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 260 to USD 370.
- Samsara Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 45 to USD 60.
- Southwest Airlines Co.: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its underperform recommendation with a price target raised from 19 to USD 24.
- Tesla, Inc.: Fubon Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 330 to USD 472.
- Ulta Beauty, Inc.: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from 335 to USD 410.
- United Airlines Holdings, Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from 84 to USD 120.
- Veeva Systems Inc.: Truist Securities maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from USD 207 to USD 261.
- Aj Bell Plc: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of GBX 500.
- Energean Plc: Berenberg downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from GBX 1175 to GBX 1045.
- Halma Plc: JP Morgan upgrades to neutral from underweight with a target price raised from GBP 23.50 to GBP 26.
- Spirax Group Plc: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from GBP 93 to GBP 78.
- United Utilities: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from GBX 1230 to GBX 1190.
- Bank Of Montreal: CIBC Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from CAD 134 to CAD 150.
- The Toronto-Dominion Bank: Desjardins Securities downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from CAD 88 to CAD 80.