Futures for the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 suggest modest gains. The Dow Jones futures are down 0.2%. Meanwhile, European markets are feeling the ripple effects of some less-than-stellar economic data from China. Chinese exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year in November, but it wasn't enough to impress the critics. Imports fell by 3.9%, signaling weak domestic demand. As a result, sectors like luxury goods and basic resources in Europe are feeling the pinch. Ah, the European stock markets, where the drama unfolds with all the suspense of a soap opera, but with fewer love triangles and more interest rate predictions. Today, the Stoxx Europe 600 index was down  0.1%, while in Paris, the CAC 40 took a more pronounced dip, down 0.7%.  Over in London, the FTSE 100 joined the Parisian indices in their downward dance, slipping by 0.5%. 

Monday's session opened with a rousing performance by Chinese equities, while their American counterparts played the part of the tragic hero, falling from grace. The Chinese Politburo, not to be upstaged, took center stage with a flourish of policy proclamations for the coming year, a script filled with phrases like ‘unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment’ and ‘moderately flexible’ monetary policy. In layman's terms: they're pulling out the stops to jazz up the economic jam session. Now, if one is to decode the tea leaves of Beijing's bureaucratic speak, we must hold our breath until Wednesday's Central Economic Work Conference, and for the full reveal, await the March 2025 National People's Congress. But why wait for the encore when the teaser has already sent the MSCI China index leaping 3.2%? Investors, it seems, have a voracious appetite for Chinese stocks, with PDD Holding, the maestro behind discount virtuoso Temu, and Bilibili, a darling of the streaming sphere, seeing their stocks pirouette upwards by 10% and 21%, respectively.

In essence, China is dishing out another round of fiscal fortune cookies promising prosperity, while simultaneously giving Nvidia a swift kick in the transistors with an antitrust probe—a tit-for-tat for Uncle Sam's semiconductor squeeze. Nvidia's stumble, a mere 2.5% dip, did little to buoy the US indices, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500 all taking a synchronized bow.
Wall Street's stumble, however, barely muffles the bullish symphony playing in investors' minds. Across the pond, Europe's markets were a motley crew. The CAC40, seemingly aloof to France's political theater, took a modest bow, while the FTSE 100, buoyed by a commodity chorus line and an oil overture, took a modest stride forward. Amsterdam and Warsaw joined the dance, but Frankfurt and Zurich tripped over their own feet, with Milan and Madrid also losing their rhythm.

With the U.S. Consumer Price Index data waiting in the wings for Wednesday, the audience of investors is perched on the edge of their seats. This number could cue the Federal Reserve's next move. Will it be a rate cut of 25 basis points in December's score?

Not to be upstaged, the European Central Bank due to release its decision on Thursday. Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to hold its notes steady, keeping rates unchanged at 4.35%, with a nod to easing inflationary pressures—a change from its previous, more somber tone.

In the corporate box, Oracle's post-market performance yesterday hit a sour note, struggling to harmonize its releases with market expectations. Meanwhile, the alleged culprit in the murder of UnitedHealth's insurance arm CEO, Brian Thompson, was apprehended in a McDonald's in Pennsylvania.

As dawn broke over the Asia-Pacific markets, it was a veritable patchwork quilt. Japan and India stitched together slight gains, South Korea rebounded sharply, while Taiwan and Australia's numbers were gently frayed. The ripple effect of China's proclamation was a mixed bag, with the Hang Seng index dipping and the CSI300 barely clinging to its gains. As for Europe's early market indicators, they're humming a bearish tune today, perhaps a prelude to tomorrow's revelations from China's economic authorities.

Economic highlights:

The second reading of German inflation for November an d US non-farm productivity are on the calendar today.

  • Dollar: EUR 0.9506 GBP: 0.7843
  • Ounce of gold: USD 2,678
  • Brent crude: USD 71.90 
  • WTI: 68.01
  • US 10-year: 4.23
  • Bitcoin: USD 98,000

In corporate news:

  • Meta faces multiple legal and regulatory challenges including unfair dismissal allegations, tax evasion probes in Italy, investigations into advertising practices, and scrutiny over a secret ads deal with Google, while its CEO Mark Zuckerberg sold substantial shares, amidst a backdrop of mixed tech stock performances and competition in the social media space.
  • Google has launched a new quantum computing chip with 105 qubits that can solve complex problems quickly, while also facing investigations by the European Commission for advertising violations involving minors and challenges in the US over its payment processing practices.
  • Luigi Mangione has been arrested and charged with the murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson, showing visible signs of nervousness during his arrest.
  • MongoDB reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings with an EPS of $1.16, surpassing estimates, and raised its revenue and EPS outlook for fiscal 2025, guiding Q4 EPS between $0.62-$0.65 on projected revenues of $515-$519 million.
  • Oracle's fiscal Q2 2024 revenue missed expectations due to strong competition in the cloud sector, leading to a decline in shares despite maintaining its quarterly cash dividend.
  • Amazon has secured exclusive rights from Games Workshop for film and TV adaptations of the Warhammer 40,000 universe, initiated 15-minute grocery delivery trials in India, partnered with Intuit to provide financial management services to sellers, and faces new UK regulations requiring contributions to recycling costs of waste electrical items.
  • C3.ai reported a narrower fiscal Q2 loss and higher revenue than expected, raised its full-year revenue guidance due to strong demand for its enterprise AI software, and saw its shares increase in after-hours trading.
  • Comcast is projected to lose over 100,000 broadband customers in Q4, causing its shares to drop, even as it extends its partnership with Warner Bros Discovery through a multi-year distribution deal, amidst a broader context of mixed performance in consumer stocks.
  • China's State Administration for Market Regulation is investigating Nvidia for potential anti-monopoly law breaches, while Arthur J. Gallagher is set to acquire AssuredPartners for approximately $13.45 billion in an all-cash transaction.
  • Vail Resorts reported a wider fiscal Q1 loss and increased revenue to $260.3M, surpassing estimates, while raising its net income forecast for fiscal 2025 and maintaining its quarterly dividend, despite an expected decline in pass unit sales by year-end, with shares rising in premarket trading.

Analyst recommendations:

American Airlines Group Inc.: Bernstein upgrades to outperform from market perform with a price target raised from USD 14 to USD 24.
Ball Corporation: Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a target price of USD 67.
Centene Corporation: Jefferies downgrades to underperform from hold with a target price reduced from USD 68 to USD 52.
Dr Horton: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to market perform from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 200 to USD 183.
Ebay Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to underperform from hold with a price target reduced from USD 60 to USD 52.
First American Financial Corporation: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to market perform from outperform with a target price of USD 80.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target raised from USD 596.50 to USD 650.50.
Mgic Investment Corporation: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to market perform from outperform with a target price of USD 29.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 29 to USD 35.
Pinterest, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 41 to USD 36.
Progressive Corporation: HSBC downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from USD 280 to USD 267.
The Interpublic Group Of Companies, Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to equalweight from underweight with a target price raised from USD 26 to USD 34.
The Travelers Companies, Inc.: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 253 to USD 290.
United Parcel Service, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from market perform and reduces the target price from USD 155 to USD 150.
Carnival Corporation: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 24 to USD 32.
Coinbase Global, Inc.: Redburn Atlantic maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 206 to USD 260.
Ge Vernova Inc.: Truist Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 325 to USD 400.
Oracle Corporation: Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 157 to USD 194.
Rocket Companies, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to underperform from market perform with a target price reduced from USD 16 to USD 11.50.
Salesforce.com, Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 420.
Travel + Leisure Co.: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 49 to USD 59.
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from 11 to USD 14.
Ashtead Group Plc: Peel Hunt downgrades to hold from add with a target price of GBX 6000.
BT Group Plc: Barclays downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a price target reduced from GBP 2.15 to GBP 1.90.
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc: RBC Capital upgrades to outperform from sector perform with a target price of GBX 2375.