U.S. equity futures were playing a game of mixed signals ahead of Monday's opening bell. Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq futures took a 0.2% dip. Analysts predict a 0.2% month-over-month and a 2.7% year-over-year rise in the CPI for November. The market's gaze is firmly fixed on this inflation data, which is expected to steer future economic and monetary policy decisions.

On Friday, the S&P 500 marked its 18th rise in 24 sessions since Trump's election victory. The U.S. equity market was already off to a strong start in 2024, but Trump's return has supercharged it, creating an early end-of-year rally. Investors are now speculating whether this pre-Christmas rally will morph into a full-blown Christmas rally. Spoiler alert: they think it will. 2024 is all about "No pain, no gain," quipped a major U.S. investment bank on Friday, riffing on the stock market adage. This period of easy gains rewards risk-takers.

On Friday, Wall Street continued its climb after a benign employment report. Traders now see an 85% chance of a Fed rate cut of a quarter-point on December 18. This is music to the ears of equity markets, as the main concern is that Trump's economic policy might stoke inflation, forcing the Fed to keep rates high. The rest of the stock market world is trying to keep pace with the American juggernaut, with mixed results.

The Paris Bourse has perked up, posting seven consecutive sessions of gains despite political turmoil. However, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 8.7%), while S&P 500 rose 27.7%. Investors are navigating a tumultuous geopolitical landscape. After Sino-American tensions, the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Israeli-Arab conflict, and political crises in France and South Korea, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria adds another layer of complexity. Yet, risk assets remain resilient, and oil prices are unfazed. It seems nothing can shake this market. Bashar El Assad has surprisingly sought refuge in Russia after fleeing his country, ousted by the Islamic rebellion.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated on NBC that he won't replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before his term ends. The president-elect also met with Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on Saturday for the reopening of Notre-Dame Cathedral, advocating for peace talks with Russia.

In the macro agenda, the lead-up to Christmas will see several central bank decisions, most of which are leaning towards monetary easing. The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) and the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) will precede the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank (Thursday). The ECB is generating high expectations, while France and Germany are in recovery mode. Inflation remains a concern, with the U.S. November CPI report due on Wednesday.

In the corporate world, tech giants Oracle, Adobe, and Broadcom, along with Inditex, Costco, and Charles Schwab, will be in the spotlight amid economic statistics. In the Asia-Pacific region this morning, Japan, Australia, India, and Taiwan managed to claw back some points, but bear markets are drawing attention. In South Korea, the KOSPI fell 2.7% due to political chaos and fears that Trump's policies might impact the electric vehicle industry, to which the country is heavily exposed. The main Korean index has lost 8% in a month. In China, annual inflation remained unchanged in November, signaling a sluggish recovery. Producer prices continued to decline. The Hang Seng gained 2.7%, while mainland China stayed flat. The official Xinhua news agency lifted indices by announcing that China will adopt more proactive measures to boost domestic demand in 2025. The CCP Politburo also indicated support for the real estate and stock markets, with plans for moderately flexible monetary policy and reinforced counter-cyclical measures. This was enough to turn around Chinese indices and boost the European pre-opening, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.2%.

Today's economic highlights:

  • Dollar: EUR 0.9456 GBP 0.7826
  • Ounce of gold: USD 2665
  • Brent crude: USD 72.06
  • 10-year US bond: 4.18
  • Bitcoin: USD 98,620

In corporate news:

  • China's State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an antitrust investigation into Nvidia for potentially breaching anti-monopoly laws following its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies.
  • Omnicom Group has finalized the acquisition of Interpublic Group in an all-stock transaction valued at $13.25 billion, consolidating their positions in the advertising industry.
  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. has acquired AssuredPartners for $13.45 billion, bolstering its U.S. insurance brokerage business, funded in part by an $8.5 billion public share offering.
  • A BlackRock insider sold shares totaling over $113 million in three separate transactions.
  • Novolex, a portfolio company of Apollo Global Management, has agreed to acquire Pactiv Evergreen for $6.7 billion, or $18 per share.
  • Apple is set to increase its footprint in Saudi Arabia by opening an online store and physical retail locations, while CE Info Systems has abandoned its investment plan in the outgoing CEO's company, resulting in a 16% surge in its shares.
  • Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery have entered into a multi-year distribution agreement to deliver Warner Bros. Discovery's content across Comcast's linear TV, apps, streaming services in the U.S., and Sky's platforms in the UK and Ireland.
  • As Americans grapple with increasing health insurance costs and procedural delays, New York City Mayor Eric Adams reports progress in the investigation into the murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Bank Of America: Morgan Stanley downgrades to equalwt from overwt with a price target raised from USD 48 to USD 55.
  • Biogen Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from USD 250 to USD 180.
  • C.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight with a target price raised from USD 118 to USD 130.
  • Diamondback Energy, Inc.: Gerdes Energy Research LLC upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price reduced from USD 203 to USD 202.
  • Hess Corporation: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight with a price target raised from USD 151 to USD 193.
  • Jefferies Financial Group Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight with a price target raised from USD 67 to USD 97.
  • Pbf Energy Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 39 to USD 34.
  • Reddit, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt with a price target raised from USD 70 to USD 200.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Barclays upgrades to overweight from equalweight with a price target raised from USD 26 to USD 49.
  • Rockwell Automation, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from sector weight with a target price of USD 345.
  • Charles Schwab: Barclays upgrades to overweight from equalweight with a price target raised from USD 74 to USD 95.
  • Synchrony Financial: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 59 to USD 72.
  • Verisign. Inc.: Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 200 to USD 250.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with a target price raised from USD 500 to USD 550.
  • Ally Financial Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 44 to USD 56.
  • Biogen Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from USD 250 to USD 180.
  • Block, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 80 to USD 105.
  • Carmax, Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 99.
  • Citigroup Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 104.
  • Coinbase Global, Inc.: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from 204 to USD 355.
  • Dutch Bros Inc.: Baird maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 46 to USD 60.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company: Loop Capital Markets maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 18 to USD 24.
  • Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 165 to USD 214.
  • Lululemon Athletica Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 292 to USD 396.
  • Netflix, Inc.: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 800 to USD 1020.
  • Paycom Software, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 193 to USD 248.
  • Toast, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 29 to USD 40.
  • Aj Bell Plc: Shore Capital upgrades to buy from hold with a target price raised from GBX 465 to GBX 525.
  • Ashtead Group Plc: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of GBX 6500.
  • Frasers Group Plc: Barclays downgrades to equalweight from overweight with a price target reduced from GBP 9.05 to GBP 7.60.
  • International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.a.: AlphaValue/Baader Europe downgrades to sell from reduce with a price target raised from 2.92 to EUR 2.94.