Let's pay tribute to the pollsters: this time, they got it right. On Sunday February 23, the results of the German parliamentary elections came as no surprise. The Christian Democrats of the CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, came out on top. With 28.5% of the vote, they beat the Afd (20.8%) and the SPD (16.4%). The next phase will involve several weeks of talks to draw up a government contract. This should lead to the formation of a grand coalition between the Social Democrats of the SPD and the CDU/CSU.
The verdict of the polls also marks the end of a rather unusual campaign, marked by unprecedented American interference. Firstly, Elon Musk, who gave his support to the Afd and even made a remarkable speech at one of the party's rallies. Then there was that of US Vice-President J.D. Vance, who met Afd candidate Alice Weidel on the sidelines of his trip to the Munich Security Conference, but snubbed Chancellor Scholz.
This change of government comes at a time when Germany is struggling economically. In 2024, the country experienced its second consecutive year of recession. And above all, at a time when Donald Trump has decided to completely turn the tables on geopolitics. The American president seems to be calling the Atlantic Alliance into question. A shock for all Europeans, and for Germans in particular.
Indeed, Germany and the United States have a special relationship. The Americans, through their central role in the political, economic and institutional reconstruction of West Germany after 1945, have to some extent built modern Germany and laid the foundations for its prosperity. For many Germans, the alliance with the United States had become an element of identity. And a totem for the political elite. But with the return of Donald Trump, Germans finally seem to have realized that they can no longer rely on their American friend for their security. Friedrich Merz made this perfectly clear on the evening of his victory. "My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we can gradually achieve genuine independence from the United States." An unthinkable statement for a German official just a short while ago. But he himself acknowledged. "I never thought I'd have to say such a thing on a TV show."
To meet the challenge of European defense, Germany will have to spend more and therefore issue more debt. With a deficit of less than 3% and a debt level of around 60%, the country has room to maneuver. But the debt brake, a principle enshrined in the German constitution in 2009, which limits the federal government's structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, prevents further borrowing for the time being. And any constitutional reform requires a two-thirds majority, which Friedrich Merz will not have with the support of the SPD and the Greens alone.
Hence the hypothesis put forward in recent days: to go through the current Parliament, which is in session until March 24. Either to reform the debt brake directly, or to create a special fund (also requiring a two-thirds majority) for the German army. Why would this be the case? Because Die Linke and Afd currently have 122 seats, compared with 216 in the new configuration. The Afd is opposed to further indebtedness, while Die Linke is hostile to rearmament. Friedrich Merz will have to play a balancing act to find a way through, and thus advance his agenda. The future of Germany and Europe depends on it.
Drawing: Amandine Victor
