Five sessions of gains in Trump's first 100 days

Donald Trump marks the first 100 days of his second term in office, drawing praise from supporters who admire his assertiveness, while critics express growing concern. Those in the middle remain cautious, increasingly scrutinizing his actions. Markets have rebounded since the 80-day point—not out of strong faith in his economic agenda, but because institutional checks and balances appear to be holding.

The S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Monday, ending the session up 0.06%—a modest gain that nevertheless marked a fifth consecutive day of advances. The session’s intraday chart resembled a wide smile: the index opened higher, dipped into negative territory by mid-session, then recovered steadily through the afternoon. The Nasdaq 100 followed a nearly identical pattern but closed just shy of breakeven, down 0.03%. After last week’s rebound, a pullback wouldn’t have been surprising. But markets found renewed strength mid-session, driven largely by a single assumption: the worst may now be behind us, following early-April turmoil triggered by former President Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric.

The White House’s abrupt and chaotic retreat from its full-blown trade war still leaves one major unresolved issue—China. Tensions between Washington and Beijing remain high, with neither side willing to make the first move. U.S. officials argue that the pressure is unsustainable for China—likely true—while Beijing counters that it can endure with support from allied nations—also likely true. Despite the stalemate, investors are betting that formal negotiations will soon begin. Even the announcement of talks would likely be enough to keep markets steady. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has become the administration’s main voice of reassurance, working to frame a coherent narrative amid a flurry of conflicting messages—an iron fist in a velvet glove.

In the meantime, the administration continues to soften its stance. The latest shift comes from the auto sector, where U.S. manufacturers have warned they cannot produce competitively priced vehicles without imported components. According to reports, the White House is expected to roll back tariffs on certain foreign car parts used in domestic assembly. While this signals that negotiations remain possible, the ongoing policy volatility undermines a core strength of the U.S. economy: its reputation for stability and predictability in attracting investment.

Global markets are holding onto incremental gains. European futures turned positive following speculation about new auto tariffs. Corporate earnings are in the spotlight today, with a fresh round of quarterly results focused more on traditional industries. Tech heavyweights—Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon—will report later this week, beginning Wednesday evening.

In Canada, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, secured a narrow election victory based on an anti-Trump platform. A win that once seemed unlikely, it may still fall short of a governing majority. The Canadian dollar weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar following early results.

In Ukraine, the situation remains fluid despite President Putin’s announcement of a temporary ceasefire in honor of the 80th anniversary of WWII victory. The U.S. has made little response, showing no clear shift in its posture toward the Kremlin.

In Europe, attention is focused on the massive blackout that hit Spain and Portugal. For now, details remain scarce and the cause is still under investigation.

Across Asia-Pacific, where Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, Chinese indices hovered near flat. However, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan extended their rebounds with gains between 0.5% and 1%. India posted a more modest rise of 0.1%. European futures point slightly higher, though overall sentiment remains cautious.

Today's economic highlights

S&P/C&S real estate prices (9:00 a.m.) and the JOLTS survey on job openings (10:00 a.m.) will drive the market in the United States. See the full agenda here.

• USD: 0.8773 EUR & 0.7461 GBP
• Bund/OAT spread: 72 points (stable)
• VIX: 25.15 (+0.3%)
• Gold: $3,308
• Brent: $63.72
• 10-year US: 4.21%
• Bitcoin: USD 94,800

In corporate news:

• American Airlines and Jetblue Airways – American Airlines ended negotiations with JetBlue Airways and filed a lawsuit seeking damages after the breakup of their alliance on U.S. Northeast routes, according to a letter sent to employees on Monday by Vice President Steve Johnson.
• Amazon – The first 27 satellites of Amazon's Kuiper high-speed internet constellation were launched into space from Florida on Monday, marking the start of a project that could compete with SpaceX's Starlink.
• Apple and Walmart – India's financial crime agency has requested sales data and other information from smartphone manufacturers, including Apple and Xiaomi, as part of an investigation involving Amazon and Flipkart, which is owned by Walmart, sources told Reuters.
• Boeing – Chinese airlines and Boeing have been severely affected by U.S.-imposed tariffs, said China’s Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday, expressing hope that Washington would consider corporate concerns and create a stable trade environment. Additionally, S&P removed Boeing from its "negative watch" list, citing improvements in aircraft production and reduced cash consumption.
• Brown & Brown – Reported a 13% increase in first-quarter profit on Monday, driven by higher revenue from commissions and fees.
• Cadence Systems – Raised its full-year revenue and profit forecasts on Monday, citing resilient demand for its chip design software amid an AI boom, although concerns over tariffs impacting its operations in China cast a shadow over its outlook.
• Coca-Cola – Reported a smaller-than-expected decline in first-quarter revenue on Tuesday, supported by price increases and strong demand for its sodas and fruit juices.
• General Motors – Announced Tuesday that it is abandoning its forecasts for the year, adopting a cautious stance in light of the uncertain effects of the trade war initiated by President Donald Trump, despite posting solid quarterly results.
• Hilton Worldwide – Lowered its growth forecasts for the year on Tuesday, citing fears of an economic recession triggered by broad U.S. tariffs.
• Honeywell – Shares rose 5% in pre-market trading. The conglomerate reported a rise in first-quarter adjusted earnings on Tuesday and raised the lower end of its annual guidance, driven by strong demand for aerospace parts and maintenance services amid a shortage of new commercial jets.
• Kraft Heinz – Cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts on Tuesday, citing the impact of higher prices and an uncertain economic environment on product demand.
• Merck – Will invest one billion dollars in a Delaware plant to expand U.S. production as it prepares for the potential impact of tariffs, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
• Nucor – Surpassed expectations for its first-quarter revenue and profit on Monday, aided by strong performance in its steel mill segment.
• Nvidia and Johnson & Johnson – CEOs and top executives from Nvidia, Johnson & Johnson, Hyundai Motor, Toyota Motor, and SoftBank Group are among the business leaders expected at the White House on Wednesday for an event promoting U.S. investment, officials told Reuters.
• Nxp Semiconductors – Shares dropped 8% in pre-market trading following the announcement that CEO Kurt Sievers will step down by the end of the year, to be replaced by Rafael Sotomayor.
• PayPal – Beat Wall Street expectations with its first-quarter earnings on Tuesday and maintained its full-year profit forecast despite tariff-driven economic uncertainty.
• Pfizer – Reported first-quarter earnings above Wall Street expectations on Tuesday, driven by cost cuts and stronger-than-expected sales of its heart disease drug Vyndaqel.
• Qualcomm – British semiconductor company Alphawave IP Group announced Tuesday that the UK’s takeover regulator has extended the deadline for Qualcomm to make an offer to May 12.
• Automotive Sector – The U.S. administration will take steps to reduce the impact of tariffs on foreign parts used in vehicles manufactured in the U.S., officials said on Monday. General Motors' CEO Mary Barra and Ford’s CEO Jim Farley welcomed the measures. In pre-market trading, Ford shares rose 1.1%, Tesla 0.8%, and General Motors 0.9%.
• Spotify Technology – Shares plunged 6.3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday after Spotify forecasted an operating profit for the current quarter below Wall Street expectations due to rising costs in certain countries, overshadowing stronger-than-expected forecasts for monthly active users and premium subscribers.
• Tesla – Announced that the first units of its electric Semi truck will be on the production line by the end of the year at its Nevada plant.
• Universal Health Services – Surpassed Wall Street expectations for first-quarter earnings on Monday, supported by sustained demand for medical care.
• United Parcel Service – Shares rose 4% in pre-market trading. The company reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings on Tuesday and announced plans to cut 20,000 jobs to manage costs amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• Visa – Is set to release its quarterly earnings after the Wall Street close.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Alaska Air Group: Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating and lowers the price target from $85 to $83.
• Alexandria Real Estate Equities: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its Neutral rating and lowers the price target from $111 to $85.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its Buy rating and lowers the price target from $61 to $56.
• Cadence Design Systems: JP Morgan maintains its Overweight rating and raises the price target from $325 to $330.
• Campbell Soup: Bernstein maintains its Outperform rating and lowers the price target from $48 to $47.
• Colgate-Palmolive: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its Sell rating and raises the price target from $79 to $80.
• Dayforce: Citigroup maintains its Buy rating and lowers the price target from $78 to $68.
• Equifax: Redburn Atlantic maintains a Neutral rating and raises the price target from $245 to $275.
• Gilead Sciences: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its Buy rating and raises the price target from $108 to $116.
• Hamilton Lane: JP Morgan maintains its Neutral rating and lowers the price target from $176 to $167.
• Icon: JP Morgan downgrades from Overweight to Neutral and lowers the price target from $265 to $150.
• Intel: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its Sell rating and lowers the price target from $18 to $17.
• Meta Platforms: Bernstein maintains its Outperform rating and lowers the price target from $800 to $700.
• NRG Energy: Morgan Stanley maintains its Equal-weight rating and raises the price target from $99 to $104.
• Paylocity Holding: Citigroup maintains its Buy rating and lowers the price target from $246 to $225.
• Pinterest: Bernstein maintains its Outperform rating and lowers the price target from $47 to $35.
• Progressive: Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating and raises the price target from $310 to $320.
• SBA Communications: Citigroup maintains its Buy rating and raises the price target from $250 to $265.
• Snap: Bernstein maintains its Market Perform rating and lowers the price target from $12 to $10.
• Welltower: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its Outperform rating and raises the price target from $163 to $164.