The United States is a market like no other for European wine and spirits producers. It accounted for €13.1bn of exports in 2024, including:
€5.2bn of wine, or 20% of total EU exports in this sector. €5.1bn worth of spirits and liqueurs, representing 22% of the bloc's sales. €1.1bn for beer, a market that is still strategic, albeit less exposed.
A 200% tariff on these products, and the whole chain suffers: from Bordeaux vineyards to Scottish distilleries, passing via champagne houses.
Euronews
This isn't the first time Brussels and Washington have clashed over import taxes.
2018: The EU imposes a 25% tax on American whisky in response to Trump's tariffs on European steel and aluminum. Bourbon exports to Europe plummet.
2021: Fragile truce. Brussels suspends tax after agreement with Washington.
2025: The EU puts another coin into the machine. Faced with the return of US steel taxes, it doubles down and raises the tax on whisky to 50% from April 1.
Pernod Ricard (France) - Whisky, cognac, vodka... but also champagnes such as Mumm and Perrier-Jouët. The US market accounts for 30% of sales, with iconic brands such as Jameson (Irish whisky) and Martell (cognac). The impact of a 200% tax? An explosion in US prices, which could make these spirits unaffordable for many Americans. A serious blow, especially as the group had already revised its forecasts downwards due to tensions with China. With this new threat, Pernod finds itself caught between two superpowers.
Rémy Cointreau (France) - Its business is based on one flagship product: Rémy Martin cognac. An ultra-premium market, where the United States accounts for a third of global sales. Unsurprisingly, this is one of the companies most affected by these tariffs. In addition, cognac has to be produced in Cognac. It's impossible to get around the tax by relocating. If Trump implements his tariff, prices will soar and demand could crumble.
Campari (Italy) - Behind its famous aperitifs (Campari, Aperol), the company also owns Grand Marnier cognac and Wild Turkey bourbon. The US market accounts for 28% of its revenues, and sales of Aperol Spritz are exploding in the US. However, if Trump carries out his threat, imported European liqueurs will become unaffordable. The group can still rely on its locally-produced bourbon, which will not be affected, but this will not be enough to offset the loss.
Diageo (UK) - The world's number one spirits company (Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Tanqueray) has a strong exposure to the United States, which accounts for almost 39% of its sales. However, Trump's threat is less clear-cut for the group. Analysts are betting that its actual exposure to tariffs will be limited: for one thing, the UK was not explicitly targeted by Trump in the EU framework, and for another, Diageo produces many drinks directly in the US (bourbons, vodka, beer), which mitigates the impact. Nevertheless, if Scotch whisky were included in "European spirits", a 200% tariff would make brands such as Johnnie Walker virtually inaccessible to American consumers, a significant risk for the group.
Wines and champagnes
LVMH - Moët Hennessy (France) - The world's leading luxury goods group, whose Wines & Spirits division includes Moët & Chandon, Veuve Clicquot, Dom Pérignon champagnes and Hennessy cognac. The United States is a key market: for example, it was the #1 export market for champagne in 2022 (nearly $1bn in purchases, ~23% of exports) and accounts for around 31% of total EU wine/spirits exports. LVMH also makes a significant proportion of its cognac sales in the USA (Hennessy is the market leader). LVMH's ability to circumvent these tariffs is limited, as champagne and cognac cannot be produced outside their regions of origin.
Laurent-Perrier (France) - More than two-thirds of its sales are generated outside France. The United States is one of its main markets, neck-and-neck with the United Kingdom. Any surge in prices on the other side of the Atlantic could put a major brake on Laurent-Perrier's exports to the USA, a crucial market for its prestige cuvées.
Vranken-Pommery Monopole (France) - Champagne group producing Pommery, Vranken, Heidsieck champagnes, etc. It generates most of its sales internationally. The United States is one of its leading markets in terms of value, as it is for the Champagne sector as a whole. The announcement of 200% tariffs is a recipe for disaster for this type of export-oriented champagne house. If prices were to triple in the USA, local demand for these high-end champagnes could collapse.
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Statista
Masi Agricola (Italy) - Producer of Italian wines (notably Amarone della Valpolicella) listed on Euronext Growth Milan. Masi generates around 30% of its sales in the Americas - mainly in the United States for its premium wines. The American market appreciates Masi's top-of-the-range red wines, and Masi has even invested in them (in Argentina for the US market). With 200% tariffs, its wines would become much more expensive to import, risking a drop in volumes.
Barón de Ley and Bodegas Riojanas (Spain) (Rioja appellations) export a significant proportion of their wines to North America, where Spanish wines are gaining in popularity. A prohibitive tax would threaten their high-end sales in the USA, a market where Rioja Reserva/Gran Reserva are prized. Both these companies - Barón de Ley (known for its eponymous Rioja) and Bodegas Riojanas - are small (capitalizations in the tens of millions of euros) and their shares could suffer from a drop in export revenues.
AdVini (France) - a wine merchant and vineyard house, present in Languedoc, Bordeaux, Burgundy, etc. - generates almost 60% of its sales from exports. The company even has a subsidiary AdVini USA to distribute its wines in the United States. Extravagant tariffs would jeopardize the competitiveness of its French wines on US soil. Similarly, listed family groups such as Lanson-BCC (Champagne Lanson, etc.), which sell up to 85% of their production for export, would be hard hit if the US market suddenly closed.
Italian Wine Brands (a major bottler and exporter of Italian wines) generates a significant proportion of its sales in North America. This group has acquired several export-oriented wineries in 2022, and would see its efforts compromised by these tariffs. Many smaller Italian wineries depend on the US market to sell Prosecco, Pinot Grigio or Chianti classés - a +200% price hike would render them almost unmarketable, causing great concern throughout the wine sector.
Wine and spirits equipment manufacturers
TFF Group (France) - Tonnellerie François Frères (TFF), the world's leading cooperage manufacturer, more than two-thirds owned by the François family, generates over half its sales in the United States, where 53% of its workforce is also based. This strong presence on the American market is mainly due to the boom in bourbon, a category of whisky produced locally in the US, for which TFF supplies barrels.
On the other hand, if European producers (cognac, champagne, wine, Scotch whisky, etc.) sell less in the US, they will reduce their production. As a result, they will need fewer new barrels, which will have a direct impact on orders placed with TFF in the medium term. But all is not lost. If Trump's taxes divert American consumption from European spirits to American bourbon, this could benefit TFF, as local distilleries will need more casks - to be continued...
Oeneo (France) - This French company specializes in the manufacture of oak barrels and corks for the wine industry, and is a major player in the field of wine and spirits maturation. Its products are essential to wine and spirits producers, particularly for aging and preserving alcoholic beverages. As with TFF, if the 200% tariff is implemented, exports of European wines and spirits to the USA could fall as a result of higher prices for American consumers. This drop in exports could lead to a reduction in production by certain European producers, thus affecting demand for the barrels and corks supplied by Oeneo.
Verallia (France) - Europe's leading and the world's third-largest producer of glass packaging for beverages and food products, the company's customers include many European companies exporting spirits to the US. These include Rémy Cointreau, Hennessy and Martell & Co (a subsidiary of Pernod Ricard). Verallia's collaboration with these big names in the spirits industry, who generate a significant proportion of their sales on the American market, is a key factor in the success of the company. Thus, an increase in American customs duties on European spirits could indirectly affect Verallia due to the potential drop in its customers' exports to this key market.
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Brewers
AB InBev (Belgium) - The world's leading brewer (Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona, etc.). Although headquartered in Europe, it has a strong presence in the United States, where it brews the majority of its volumes locally (Budweiser, Bud Light, etc.). Its flagship European brands, such as Stella Artois, are partly produced in the USA or Mexico, limiting the impact of taxes. The group said it expected the impact of the tariffs to be minimal, thanks to its large US production base. On the stock market, AB InBev hardly suffered from the announcement - some even see it as a "surprise winner" of this trade war, since if European wine becomes unaffordable, American consumers could switch to beer (a segment in which AB InBev dominates and is not really targeted by the tariffs).
Heineken (Netherlands) - Europe's second-largest brewer, owner of Heineken, Amstel and numerous local brands. Heineken exports beer to the US (Heineken lager is imported from Holland), but also has local production partnerships (it controls the Lagunitas brewery in California, and produces some brands via third parties). According to CEO Dolf van den Brink, the effect of US tariffs would be "relatively manageable". He points out that the beer industry is highly local and capital-intensive, making it "less likely to be disrupted by international trade".
Clearly, Heineken can get around the problem - in part by brewing locally or using its Mexican network. Heineken's share price was only slightly affected by the announcement, with the market anticipating a limited impact. Nevertheless, if European beer were included in the list of taxed products, imports of special beers (Belgian, German, etc., distributed by Heineken USA) would become more expensive, a point to watch.
Carlsberg (Denmark) - A major Danish brewer with a strong presence in Europe and Asia, but negligible exposure in the United States (its brands such as Carlsberg, Tuborg and 1664 are not widely distributed across the Atlantic). Thus, the threat of 200% tariffs on European alcohol has little direct impact on Carlsberg. Its activity in the USA is mainly limited to the marginal export of a few high-end beers, and the group has no significant local production units.
The final word
Ultimately, the European spirits companies most affected by these punitive tariffs would be those heavily dependent on exports to the USA - first and foremost the major premium wine & spirits groups (cognac, liqueurs, champagne) such as Rémy Cointreau, Pernod Ricard, Campari or LVMH. Next in line are the champagne houses and wine producers whose US market absorbs a large share of production, as well as some of the sector's small caps, which could see their profits wiped out. On the other hand, the major international brewers show a more limited impact, and could even benefit from a shift in consumption towards unaffected beverages.
