These markets are rising and rising. Western equities have been moving almost in lockstep since someone, somewhere, decided that the US's redefinition of global trade is manageable. Yesterday, while Donald Trump was busy punishing countries that do not adhere to his plan with tariffs of varying degrees, Bitcoin hit a new record high of over $112,000 per coin, Nvidia made a foray into $4 trillion market capitalisation (a first for a company) and the Nasdaq broke new ground. These three symbols of risky assets speak volumes about investor appetite. And it doesn't matter that the White House also announced a 50% surcharge on imported copper during the day, followed by new punitive tariffs against seven new countries later in the day.

Among them is Moldova, which will be hit with a 25% tariff. Why Moldova and why 25%? Excellent question. I imagine it's because it applies a 20% VAT, 4.2% average customs duties and 0.4% import charges, which roughly adds up to 25% at the point of exit. More than half of the country's exports to the United States are alcohol. The terms of trade do not seem particularly unfavourable, especially since the United States has a trade surplus with Moldova (135.3 million dollars in exports vs. 90.2 million dollars in imports), which mainly buys cars and electronic equipment from the United States.

The customs duty saga continued last night with the threat of 50% tariffs on Brazil. Donald Trump believes that negotiations are not progressing quickly enough and has criticised the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He is also not very happy about the BRICS countries organising themselves to create a front against the US. It's a strange cocktail of economics, geopolitics, sovereignty and interference. The threat is all the more brutal given Brazil's trade deficit with the United States.

But for now, investors have shifted from the panic mode of early April to ‘everything will be fine’ mode. Without being particularly pessimistic, one can still express doubts that all these tariffs currently being rolled out will be painless for the global economy in general and the United States in particular. It is one thing to mock Trump's backtracking by trotting out the ‘TACO Trade’ justification at every opportunity (i.e. the market buys because it thinks the US president will always end up scaling back his ambitions). But continuing to reason on this basis when tariffs are starting to fall thick and fast is an increasingly risky bet.

Let's return to Nvidia and its $4 trillion market capitalisation (which did not hold at closing, but remains within reach). In recent years, it was Apple that explored uncharted market territory. The group's renaissance and the launch of the revolutionary first iPhone 18 years ago (June 2007) cemented the supremacy of the Apple brand. Sic Transit Gloria Mundi, as the Catholic Church used to say when crowning its popes, to remind them that glory is fleeting. $4 trillion is equivalent to Japan's GDP in 2024. This is huge and, according to Wall Street, it should continue, as 89% of the 66 analysts following the issue have a positive opinion.

In the macroeconomic sphere, it should be noted that US yields fell yesterday after a debt auction that was quickly absorbed and the release of the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting. The tone of the discussions shows that the members of the monetary policy committee are more divided than usual on the monetary policy to be pursued. The main stumbling block concerns the impact of tariffs on the economy. This brings us back to the general issue, while noting that policymakers are asking themselves the same questions as anyone else interested in the economy. The most worrying thing is probably that they don't really have any more answers, only hunches. What is certain is that the market has interpreted the dissension in its own way: the probability of a rate cut in September has risen from 65% to 72%.

The Asia-Pacific region continues to show mixed trends from one market to another, as has been the case since the beginning of the week. Japan and India are down, but other markets are gaining ground. South Korea, for example, where the KOSPI is up for the fourth consecutive day. The lack of a trade agreement with the United States is more than offset by the strength of technology stocks, which are slavishly following the Nasdaq's lead. Leading indicators are bullish in Europe, despite Wall Street futures turning red after Trump's announcements on Brazil.

Today's Economic Highlights:

On today's agenda: the producer price index in Germany; in the United States, new unemployment claims will be released. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.36
  • Gold: US$3,325.04
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$70.34
  • United States 10 years: 4.34%
  • BITCOIN: US$111,182

In corporate news:

  • Blackstone and Legal & General establish a $20 billion private credit partnership.
  • Thames Water declines to retract bonuses despite government threats and evaluates a potential rescue offer from Rupert Redesdale and Muinin Holdings.
  • UK Government plans to hold a minority stake in the Sizewell C nuclear project and collaborates with Google to enhance public service cybersecurity.
  • TAQA and Masdar partner with Iberdrola for the East Anglia Three wind farm project.
  • Londonmetric Property PLC successfully passes all AGM resolutions.
  • Wizz Air to resume flights to Tel Aviv starting August 8.
  • UniCredit faces regulatory scrutiny over plans to acquire Banco BPM and Commerzbank.
  • Gerresheimer AG revises 2025 revenue outlook downward, now anticipating 0-2% growth.
  • Carasent reports a 25.8% revenue increase in Q2, initiates a SEK 150 million buyback program.
  • Barry Callebaut reduces volume guidance due to cocoa bean price volatility.
  • Blackstone collaborates with Apollo and Cetera Financial Group for retail investor products.
  • Sumitomo Corp signs a memorandum with the UK government for a $10 billion clean energy investment.
  • New World Resources advises shareholders to take no action on Kinterra's increased offer.
  • OpenAI and Microsoft advance in AI technology, including a new web browser and educational initiatives.
  • Tesla plans to expand robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area within two months.
  • Andreessen Horowitz relocates to Nevada.
  • Linda Yaccarino resigns as CEO of X amid controversies.
  • TSMC reports Q2 sales of T$933.8 billion, a 38.6% increase from the previous year.
  • Nissan halts production of three models for the Canadian market due to mutual auto tariffs.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Zegona Communications Plc: Grupo Santander maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from 1180 to GBX 1190.
  • Polar Capital Holdings Plc: Panmure Liberum upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from GBX 545 to GBX 600.
  • Diageo Plc: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 2360 to GBX 2000.
  • Wpp Plc: Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from GBP 6.30 to GBP 5.20.
  • Whitbread Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 3900 to GBX 3500.
  • Volex Plc: Investec maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 325 to GBX 415.
  • Wpp Plc: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from GBX 570 to GBX 460.
  • Schroders Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 390 to GBX 435.
  • Next Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from GBX 13000 to GBX 13200.
  • Ubs Group Ag: Mediobanca maintains its underperform recommendation with a price target raised from 24 to CHF 25.
  • Invisio Ab: Nordea Bank initiates a buy recommendation with a target price of SEK 435.
  • Siemens Energy Ag: Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg downgrades to hold from buy with a target price of EUR 90.