Energy: Escalating tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to skyrocket. Israel has launched air strikes on Iran, targeting its nuclear and military installations. The Israeli attacks are targeting several sensitive sites, including the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. Iran is responding with waves of bombings involving drones and ballistic missiles. Tensions remain high and the market fears that the conflict will escalate, with the involvement of the US. Donald Trump himself has called for the evacuation of Tehran. Yesterday, reports said that Iran was prepared to defuse tensions with Israel and resume nuclear talks, provided that the US did not participate in an Israeli attack. The US president cut short his visit to the G7, allegedly because of growing tensions in the Middle East, fueling speculation about possible US intervention in the conflict. Against this backdrop, the market remains tense, mainly fearing a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which would push prices even higher. In other words, all the market's attention is focused on the security of hydrocarbon exports. It should be remembered that in the event of prolonged disruptions, OPEC has room to increase production, even though this does not resolve the issue of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reduced its forecast for US crude oil production in 2026, predicting a decline of 50,000 barrels per day compared with the previous year. Still on the forecast front, OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged in its latest monthly report, while the International Energy Agency trimmed its demand growth forecast for 2025.

Metals: Gold has reached its highest level in nearly two months. The precious metal still benefits from increased demand as a safe haven amid tensions in the Middle East. It is also benefiting from falling bond yields following the latest US economic data, which point to moderate inflation in the United States. Gold is now trading at around $3,400 an ounce. However, industrial metals have seen mixed movements. Copper prices fell slightly due to waning optimism after the Sino-US negotiations; its spot price fell to $9,700 per tonne.

Agricultural products: In Chicago, wheat futures fell last week, mainly due to weak US exports despite the decline in the US dollar. It should be noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised downwards its wheat stock forecasts for the end of the 2025/26 season for the United States. Wheat is trading at around 530 cents per bushel (July 2025 contract).