BP Flags Hit From Lower Oil, Gas Prices But Expects Production Rebound -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 1% to $69.31 a barrel

--European benchmark gas is down 0.1% to EUR35.57 a megawatt-hour

--Gold futures are up 1% to $3,359.70 a troy ounce

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.5% at $9,637 a metric ton

TOP STORY:

BP Flags Hit From Lower Oil, Gas Prices But Expects Production Rebound

BP warned lower oil and gas prices would hit its second-quarter performance, but said it expects higher upstream production and a strong result from its oil trading division.

The British energy major said lower oil sales could hurt earnings by up to $800 million and lower gas sales by as much as $300 million. The warning came after a volatile quarter for prices, driven by a shift in OPEC+ policy, uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Sweeping U.S. tariffs stoked fears of a global economic slowdown, sending Brent crude sharply lower. Prices briefly rebounded later in the quarter on renewed concerns over supply disruptions when tensions between Israel and Iran flared up, but the rally quickly lost momentum.

OTHER STORIES:

Global Oil Supply to Rise Faster Than Expected, IEA Says

Global oil supply is set to rise three times faster than demand this year, the International Energy Agency said in its closely watched monthly report. However, seasonal factors are keeping the market tight in the short term.

The Paris-based agency expects oil supply to grow by 2.1 million barrels a day this year and 1.3 million the next, above earlier estimates of 1.8 million and 1.1 million barrels a day, respectively. The revision follows OPEC+'s latest supersize output hike, though countries outside of the alliance remain the primary drivers of growth.

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Venezuela's Disputed Bond Complicates Citgo Sale

Bondholders are moving to block the forced sale of Venezuela's Citgo Petroleum, setting up a clash with some of the country's other creditors over control of its most valuable external asset.

A group of bondholders owed some $1.7 billion by Citgo's ultimate parent company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, has been excluded from the latest offer for the company. The group, referred to as the 2020 bondholders, had agreed to a deal in April with Citgo's previous leading bidder, Contrarian Capital-backed Red Tree Investments.

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Aker Solutions Backs Guidance Amid High Activity

Aker Solutions backed its full-year revenue forecast after experiencing high activity across its locations during the first half.

The Norwegian energy-industry service provider said Friday that its order intake for the second quarter was 10.9 billion Norwegian Kroner ($1.08 billion), taking the half year total to 36.5 billion Kroner. Its backlog stood at 68.0 billion kroner.

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Southern Names Poroch Chief Financial Officer as Tucker Retires

Southern Co.'s top finance executive, Daniel Tucker, is retiring from the utility holding company.

Southern on Friday said David Poroch, currently senior vice president, comptroller and chief accounting officer, will succeed Tucker as chief financial officer of the Atlanta company on July 31.

MARKET TALKS:

Saudi Crude Exports to China Soar in June, Kpler Says -- Market Talk

1131 GMT - Saudi Arabia's crude exports to China surged in June to their highest level since 2023, signaling strong demand in the world's second largest economy, says Kpler analyst Yan Rong Fong. Exports reached around 1.57 million barrels a day last month, with more supply likely to come as OPEC+ raises production, according to the data provider. "With OPEC+ slated to raise overall production by 548,000 barrels a day in August, Saudi Arabia will be in a position to release more crude to the market," the analyst says. "This increased availability is particularly relevant for China, its largest buyer, which could see even greater volumes." ([e-mail])

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Russian Arctic Oil Supplies to Syria Forecast to Reach 7 Million Barrels, Kpler Says -- Market Talk

1120 GMT - Russian oil shipments from the Arctic to Syria are forecast to reach 7 million barrels this year, according to Kpler. The data provider's tracking indicates another delivery of Russian Arctic-origin crude at Syria's Baniyas port around June 11, marking the eight cargo delivered since the beginning of the year. "The delivery reinforces the sustained dominance of Russian supply in Syria's crude imports following the end of Iranian oil flows after the late 2024 collapse of the Assad regime," says market analyst Ying Cong Loh. "Despite the U.S. lifting most economic sanctions, no crude shipments from other producers have been recorded so far in 2025, highlighting Russia's near-total hold on Syria's energy imports." ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Rise on Flaring Trade, Geopolitical Tensions -- Market Talk

1105 GMT - Gold futures rise for the third consecutive session on escalating trade tensions. Futures are up 1% at $3,358.20 a troy ounce. The precious metal is extending gains following U.S. threats to impose steep tariffs on trade partners, escalations that undermine hopes for an end to the trade war, XS.com's Samer Hasn says in a note. Markets have become somewhat desensitized to President Trump's recurring tariff threats but concern is growing that deals may not be reached, Hasn writes. Meanwhile, in the Middle East geopolitical tensions are again showing signs of escalation, potentially reigniting concerns of global energy supply disruption and at least temporarily adding to gold's safe-haven appeal, he adds. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ended Higher Supported by Crude Oil Strength -- Market Talk

1041 GMT - Palm oil ended higher, supported by crude oil strength, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a commentary. Prices were also supported by an upbeat mood on Wall Street, they say. Still, upside for palm oil could be limited as participants look through the latest tariff headlines. Sentiment for palm could be swayed by views on corporate profits and the economy, they say. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery rose MYR29 to MYR4,175 a ton. ([e-mail])

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Oil Rises on Russia Sanctions Prospects, OPEC+ Output Pause Report -- Market Talk

0834 GMT - Oil prices rise in early trade on prospects of potential U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and reports that OPEC+ is weighing a pause in output hikes after August. Brent crude is up 0.5% to $68.99 a barrel, while WTI gains 0.6% to $66.93 a barrel. The Trump administration is in talks with Congress regarding a bill that would authorize steep sanctions on Moscow, including a tariff on Russian oil and other commodities. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC+ members are discussing a pause in production increases after next month's hike, according to a Bloomberg report citing delegates familiar with the matter. However, "this doesn't change our outlook for the market, as we had assumed OPEC+ would hike supply all the way through until the end of September," ING analysts say. ([e-mail])

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London Copper Prices Continue Slide on U.S. Tariff -- Market Talk

0822 GMT - London copper prices fall as markets digest President Trump's larger-than-expected 50% tariff on copper imports. LME three-month futures fall 0.55% to $9,629 a metric ton and sit 3.2% lower on week. Market watchers expect the tariff to curb previously high U.S. import demand. Still, the economic rationale for the levy is unclear and will likely be reversed at some point, BMI analysts say in a note. It will push up U.S. domestic prices and hurt American manufacturing companies' competitiveness, without significantly cutting the country's import dependence, analysts say. President Trump is likely to walk back this latest threat, though the timing of any reversals is unclear, BMI says. But another reversal would entrench a view that Trump always backs down on tariffs, potentially setting up a painful surprise if he follows through, BMI cautions. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Rise as Market Digests Fresh Tariff Proposals -- Market Talk

0808 GMT - Gold futures rise, holding higher ground after making small gains in the prior two sessions. Futures are up 0.75% at $3,350.50 a troy ounce. The precious metal has risen as the market weighs up tariff risks and the unclear outlook for monetary policy easing, MUFG analysts say in a note. President Trump's sweeping tariff proposals include new levies on Canada, Brazil and copper imports have increased market uncertainty ahead of the Aug. 1 implementation deadline, which has boosted gold's safe-haven appeal, MUFG says. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has given mixed signals on the prospect of interest-rate cuts, sapping some appeal of non-interest bearing bullion, MUFG says. Gold sits nearly 27% higher year-to-date on geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases and lingering economic concerns, analysts add. ([e-mail])

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Oil Prices Rise on Seasonal Demand, Geopolitical Tensions -- Market Talk

0754 GMT - Oil prices rise, with Brent crude up 0.4% at $68.91 a barrel, and WTI up 0.5% at $66.91 a barrel. Market fundamentals for oil remain fundamentally tight on bullish seasonal demand, while new Houthi attacks on cargo vessels transiting the Red Sea are adding a risk premium, BMI analysts say in a note. President Trump's decision to delay the reintroduction of so-called "reciprocal" tariffs until August has also been positive for the market, BMI says. That said, Brent will likely come under new pressure in the second half of 2025 and through 2026 as global oil demand declines and rising production tips the market into oversupply, analysts say. BMI estimates an annual average Brent price of $68 a barrel in 2025 and $67 a barrel in 2026. ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Rises Amid Hopes for China Property Sector Stimulus -- Market Talk

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07-11-25 0805ET