On social media, I often receive comments such as, "All he ever talks about is Trump." Fair enough. A combination of intellectual laziness and the dread of facing a blank page at dawn makes Trump a rather convenient branch to cling to. The real question, rather, is this: how can one report on developments in the financial markets — or indeed, in the world at large — without mentioning the individual who stands at the very crossroads of it all? I would go further and say: this is someone who has deliberately made himself impossible to ignore, by making media dominance a central pillar of his strategy. In short, all this to say that you're going to get more Trump today.
The financial markets, meanwhile, are still treading water. They do not believe that the White House will follow through on its tariff policy. Or rather, they believe that things will settle somewhere between the exorbitant levels announced last April and the current situation, but closer to the lower end of the range. The S&P 500 lost 0.1% yesterday, while the Stoxx Europe 600 regained a slight lead over its US counterpart (+0.4%). Several trade agreements are in the pipeline, Trump revealed, who also struck a very conciliatory tone towards Europe, praising its cooperation. According to the latest news (the Financial Times seems to have a very good source at the heart of the ongoing negotiations), the EU is set to secure an agreement similar to the one signed by the United Kingdom, albeit in a slightly less favorable version. A 10% import tariff on US goods is being discussed. If Washington and Brussels reach an agreement, the latent tension on the markets could ease.
However, as there will still be a risk of upward pressure on prices, the bond market has become somewhat tense again in the US. Assumptions about short-term rate cuts have been weakened. This is all the more true given Donald Trump's additional announcements yesterday, notably the mention of a 200% tax on pharmaceutical products and the threat of a 50% surcharge on copper. At the same time, he took a few shots at the Fed chairman, once again suggesting that he should resign and saying that he was “whining like a baby” about inflation, which is yet another insult to add to the list of those aimed at Powell.
Today's session will be dominated by the release of the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting at 7:00 p.m. GMT. This morning, China reported slightly higher-than-expected inflation in June, but producer prices remained sluggish. But the elephant in the room is the trade agreements that are due to be unveiled, along with all those that are not yet ready. This is sure to create more buzz around the US president.
The Asia-Pacific markets are a little uncertain, as they were yesterday. Japan is up 0.3%, while Hong Kong is down 1%. Australia (-0.5%) is struggling to digest the central bank's tough stance, which yesterday announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged, despite the market being almost unanimous in favor of easing. European leading indicators point to a fairly balanced opening, but with a slight upward bias.
Today's economic highlights:
On today's agenda: the consumer price index in Switzerland; in the United States, wholesale inventories, DOE crude oil inventories, and the consumer confidence index. See the full calendar here.
- GBP / USD: US$1.36
- Gold: US$3,289.54
- Crude Oil (BRENT): US$69.61
- United States 10 years: 4.42%
- BITCOIN: US$108,691
In corporate news:
- Monzo fined £21 million by the British financial regulator for inadequate financial crime protection.
- Marks & Spencer halted online shopping for six weeks due to a cyberattack.
- UK Post Office scandal linked to suspected suicides and financial devastation among postmasters.
- Audioboom reported a 5% increase in revenue and a 35% rise in gross profit for the quarter.
- UniCredit increased its stake in Commerzbank to 20% through derivatives conversion, facing opposition from Germany's Verdi Union.
- Daimler Truck plans to cut 5,000 jobs in Germany and targets 3-5% organic sales growth by 2030.
- Rolls-Royce and Duisport introduced a CO2-neutral energy system at a new port terminal.
- Conroy Gold shares surged 22% after discovering five new gold anomalies in Ireland.
- Kongsberg Gruppen reported increased revenue, profit, and a 5% rise in order intake in Q2 2025.
- Neobo AB sold building rights and a building in Sollentuna for SEK 19.5 million each, with improved Q2 financial performance.
- Banca Ifis completed a EUR 400 million Senior Preferred bond issuance due in November 2029.
- Apple Inc. announced COO Jeff Williams' retirement, appointing Sabih Khan as successor, amid US-China trade tensions.
- Boeing delivered 150 commercial aircraft in Q2 2025, resuming deliveries with 60 jets in June, including 8 to China.
- Meta Platforms acquired a 3% stake in EssilorLuxottica to enhance wearable technology and released a Zoom app for Meta Quest.
- Google focuses AI investments on enhancing technical infrastructure.
See more news from UK listed companies here
Analyst recommendations:
- Aberdeen Group: Jefferies downgrades from buy to hold with a target price of GBX 175.
- Avolta: Jefferies initiates coverage with a buy rating and a target price of CHF 47.
- British American Tobacco: Jefferies resumes coverage with a buy rating and a target price of GBX 4,800.
- Galderma: William O'Neil resumes coverage with a buy rating.
- Holcim: UBS remains neutral with a target price raised from 52 to 60 CHF.
- Imperial Brands: Jefferies resumes coverage with a buy rating and a target price of 3600 GBX.
- Ipsos: Berenberg remains at buy with a target price reduced from 74 to 73 EUR.
- Kion: Jefferies downgrades from buy to hold with a target price of EUR 57.
- Victrex: Deutsche Bank downgrades from buy to hold with a target price of GBX 850.
