Does Donald Trump want a third term in office? In any case, he's been casting doubt on his intentions for months. Shortly after his election, in front of Republican elected officials, he declared: "I guess I won't run again unless you say: He's so good, we've got to find a way". In January, he said he "didn't know" whether he was barred from running for president again. The subject came up again on Sunday with the publication of an interview with NBC, in which he said he "wasn't kidding" when he considered running again.
An unlikely hypothesis, if the Constitution is anything to go by. According to the 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, "no person shall be elected to the office of President more than twice". And although a Republican elected official from Tennessee tabled a proposal in January to amend the Constitution from two to three times, the initiative is unlikely to succeed. Amending the Constitution first requires a two-thirds majority in Congress. Then, it must be ratified by at least 38 American states. These are two conditions that the Republicans are in no position to meet.
That leaves the idea of electing the Vice President, J. D. Vance, in 2028. He would then hand over to Donald Trump. Trump called this "one" method, adding that "there are others". The idea is reminiscent of Vladimir Putin's 2008 maneuver. The latter, prevented by the Russian Constitution from serving more than two consecutive terms, made way for Dmitri Medvedev. However, he continued to pull the strings from the presidency of the Russian government - the equivalent of the post of prime minister.
While this prospect is stirring up the political microcosm, in his interview with NBC, Donald Trump added that it was currently "far too early to think about it". Especially since he will be 82 in 2028. Given that life expectancy in the United States is around 77...
And even if he were to run again in 2028, there's nothing to say he'd be re-elected. Although the Republicans won a landslide victory in November, the momentum already seems to be running out. This is shown by recent local electoral battles. In Wisconsin, the seat at stake on the Supreme Court was won by the Democratic candidate, despite Elon Musk's substantial financial backing. This support probably did the Republicans a disservice, because Elon Musk mobilized against him.
Then, in the two Florida by-elections for two seats in the House of Representatives, the Republicans won. But they won by a fairly narrow margin, in districts that are traditionally Republican: proof of voters' relative dissatisfaction with the first few weeks of the Trump administration.
The Republicans thus retained their narrow majority in the House, acquired after the November elections (218 seats to 213). However, as proof of the relative feverishness of the situation is Donald Trump's decision not to nominate Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN. This is because she is currently serving as the US representative for New York's 21st congressional district; her departure would mean a new election for the post.
Imagining Donald Trump serving a third term is therefore far from the central scenario at this stage. However, the very fact that this conversation is part of the public debate is indicative of Donald Trump's vision of the presidency. His vision is one of strong, rule-free power, with no checks and balances to stand in his way, be they judicial or legislative. It's a desire for strong power that may well provoke the same criticism in the United States as is sometimes levelled at Emmanuel Macron in France: that of wanting to be a Republican monarch.