FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Oil prices are expected to continue setting the tone for the German stock market as the war in Iran enters its sixth week. Inflationary and economic concerns are rising and falling in tandem with crude prices.

Market focus remains squarely on the conflict in the Middle East. Every new announcement from US President Donald Trump, Israel's subsequent maneuvers, and any Iranian response are being closely monitored and assessed. The impact on the Strait of Hormuz is central to these concerns, as this currently blocked waterway is a vital artery for global oil shipments. Otherwise, the calendar for the Easter week remains light.

In the Iran war, no agreement is in sight shortly before the expiration of an ultimatum issued by US President Donald Trump to Tehran. While Trump reaffirmed his warning of "total destruction" of all Iranian power plants and bridges unless Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz by Wednesday night at 2:00 AM CEST, a spokesperson for the Iranian military leadership mocked this as "baseless threats" from a "delusional" president. Barring a last-minute deal, a dramatic escalation of the war with unforeseeable consequences looms.

The US could destroy Iran's bridges and power plants within four hours, Trump warned at the White House, adding that they do not want this to happen. However, he emphasized: "We have a plan." Iran's Deputy Sports Minister Alireza Rahimi called on artists and athletes to form human chains at power plants across the country at noon local time today. "We will stand hand in hand to say: attacks on public infrastructure are a war crime," Rahimi wrote on the X platform.

The spokesperson for the Khatam-al-Anbiya command center, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, stated via state media that the "rude, arrogant rhetoric and baseless threats of the delusional US president" would not stop Iran's attacks against "American and Zionist enemies." Ali-Akbar Velayati, foreign policy advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, wrote on X that Arab states should - "to prevent the region from sinking into darkness" - make it clear to Trump that the Persian Gulf is "no place for gambling." Meanwhile, Iran continues to attack Gulf states hosting US bases.

Pakistani intelligence sources said on Monday that a plan for a 45-day ceasefire had been presented to both sides, within which peace talks would be held and an agreement proposed. In these contacts, the US reportedly insisted that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz - critical for the global oil and gas market - before a ceasefire is announced. Tehran, in turn, rejected this condition.

Equity and oil traders in the US reacted with caution on Monday. Hopes that a ceasefire might yet be reached led to modest gains in the US stock market, while oil prices also edged slightly higher. For the Dax, indications from broker IG on Tuesday morning suggested a flat start just below 23,200 points.

"Donald Trump is currently almost single-handedly determining the direction and pace of the stock markets," says Thomas Altmann, Head of Portfolio Management at QC Partners in Frankfurt, summarizing the recent market turbulence. For the Dax, the focus remains on the 23,000-point mark, which has been breached at least once, either to the upside or downside, on six trading days since the start of the war in late February. "And it is quite possible that a few more trading days will be added to this."

Experts at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg also expect continued volatility. The Iran war remains the primary market theme, which is why "volatility is likely to persist for a while both in the Persian Gulf and in the markets." They added: "The effects of higher energy prices on inflation are already visible. How they will impact corporate profit outlooks will only become clear in the coming weeks when first-quarter reports are presented and annual guidance is refined."

Before the next earnings season, several economic data points are due. Domestically, attention on Wednesday and Thursday will likely turn toward German industrial orders and industrial production. However, these figures cover the month of February, prior to the outbreak of the war in the Middle East.

US consumer price data for March, due on Friday, is considered pivotal. It represents "a key metric for the first measurable impacts of the Iran war," as Helaba notes. Following the sharp rise in domestic inflation to 2.7 percent in March, with similar trends in the EU, market expert Michael Hewson expects US inflation to climb similarly due to the Middle East conflict.

In recent months, the rise in US consumer prices had slowed from 2.7 percent at the end of 2025 to 2.4 percent. While the United States is "somewhat protected by the fact that its natural gas prices have not risen to the same extent as in Europe, signs of higher prices are becoming evident elsewhere."

On the corporate side, a pre-close call on Tuesday by engineering firm Gea regarding the current situation and analyst estimates could be of interest before the quiet period begins. This will last until the presentation of first-quarter figures in May. Online broker Flatexdegiro will announce its monthly customer and transaction figures on the same day.

On Wednesday, the final annual results of drug discovery firm Evotec are on the agenda. For the investment company Mutares, the subscription period for new shares from the announced capital increase begins. On Thursday, MDax-listed Traton will invite analysts to its first-quarter pre-close call. The truck manufacturer plans to publish the corresponding figures at the end of April./ck/jsl/he

--- By Claudia Müller, dpa-AFX ---