STORY: :: Sydney, Australia / May 6, 2026
:: Jessica Genauer, Academic Director, The Public Policy Institute
"...I think what we're going to see going forward is there will overall be a ceasefire that holds, but there'll be ongoing tit for tat around the Strait of Hormuz, which essentially means that we won't see a return to that full flow of shipping in and out of the strait. And that is ultimately not good news for the global economy, at least for a number of months, if not the rest of this year."
"I think what's likely to happen is that we will see talks continuing to happen because both sides want the ceasefire to stay in place and the ceasefire can't really stay in place if there aren't at least some kind of talks, however sporadic, between the two sides to try to get a resolution on these key thorny issues like the nuclear one. But I don't think we're actually going to see any kind of clear agreement...."
"Trump wants to say that the Iranian regime has to commit not to enrich uranium at all. And the Iranian regime says that's a red line for them and they absolutely want to retain the ability to enrich uranium up to a certain level. So the two sides are sitting really far apart. But Trump has an added complexity that there was a deal with Iran under the Obama administration. And so he also wants to be able to say any deal that he strikes with Iran is going to be better than what, you know, Obama succeeded under his administration."
Trump said on Tuesday he would briefly pause an operation to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing "great progress" toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran.
Hours earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had outlined the effort that began on Monday to escort stranded tankers out of the Gulf. The strait has been virtually shut since the conflict began, blocking some 20% of world oil supplies and igniting a global energy crisis.
Both sides remained locked in a standoff neither could resolve, Academic Director of the Public Policy Institute, Jessica Genauer, said.
"We're a little bit stuck with both the Iranian regime and the U.S. military trying to get control over the strait, not really succeeding," she said, adding that "ongoing tit for tat" around the waterway meant a full return to normal shipping was unlikely for months, with serious consequences for the global economy.
The nuclear question remains the central obstacle to any lasting agreement. Washington has demanded Iran commit to zero enrichment -- a position Tehran has rejected.
Genauer said Trump's position was complicated further by his need to outdo his predecessor: any deal he strikes, she said, would have to be demonstrably stronger than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated under President Barack Obama's administration, adding a layer of domestic political pressure to an already fraught negotiation.
