WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Canola futures saw some wide price moves during the week ended June 10, trading in a roughly C$50 per ton range. While the futures ended down on the week, a trader expected the general uptrend would continue.

November canola hit a contract high of C$804.80 per ton on June 3 and fell to a nearby low of C$755.50 three days later.

Values stabilized in subsequent sessions, settling at C$774.50 per ton on June 10.

"I think we can take canola a lot higher in the long run," said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba farmer and longtime local futures trader. While the volatility in outside markets was also leading to unpredictability in canola, he saw several potential supportive factors for the Canadian oilseed.

Western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan received heavy rains June 9-10, with official Environment Canada rainfall totals topping 250 millimetres in Stonewall, Man. Winnipeg received 117 mm overnight, and many other areas also exceeded 100 mm after seeing heavy rains the previous weekend.

"You get a nine-inch rain, and that really causes you problems, but the high ground will still get a crop," said Craddock.

"I think it will be a wild summer weather-wise, and lead to wild markets," said Craddock. In addition to excess rains causing flooding in parts of Manitoba, he expected more storm activity in the United States would boost Chicago soybean futures.

Wide canola crush margins were another supportive influence, with solid export demand implying Canadian canola stocks may end up on the tight side this year, said Craddock.

Recent optimism over peace negotiations in the Middle East has weighed on crude oil, but Craddock expected oil values would eventually go higher as countries use up their strategic crude oil reserves. He said there was the possibility oil could hit US$150 per barrel "and that will really cause problems"

Any strength in crude oil would take edible oil prices up as well, providing additional support for canola.


Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-10-26 1700ET