"Trump will fix it." That was the slogan hammered home last fall, in the final stretch of the presidential election. Donald Trump had it easy then. With Americans facing a return of inflation since 2021, it was easy for him to denounce "Biden's inflation" and say that he would solve the problem.
We know what happened next: he won the election hands down, with the added bonus of control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Control of Congress, a majority in the Supreme Court, and a willingness to push the limits of executive power allowed him to roll out his agenda: tariffs, tax cuts, tougher immigration policy, renovation of the White House... he was able to advance his priorities without encountering much resistance.
But just over a year after his re-election, his popularity has fallen significantly in the polls. While he may claim a number of victories (reduced immigration, tax cuts, trade deals), the results are more mixed on his main promise - that of lower prices.
Inflation is still around 2.5%-3%. This is a form of stabilization, of course. But prices are still much higher than they were four or five years ago. Only gasoline prices have fallen, in line with oil prices. And tariffs could keep inflation at slightly higher levels (the goods component of inflation indices has been rising for several months, offsetting the decline in energy and housing prices).
The economy is the primary concern for Americans. And when we say the economy, we are not referring to macro statistics. Otherwise, with 3% growth and 4% unemployment at the end of his term, Joe Biden would have been re-elected hands down. It is more about the cost of living. In other words, how households feel on a daily basis.
The economy is by far the number one concern for Americans. Source: The Economist
For Republicans, the issue of the cost of living has come back to haunt them with the Democrats' victory in several local elections this week.
First, there was Zohran Mamdani's triumph in New York. Although the city is a Democratic stronghold, Mamdani identifies himself as a socialist (and therefore very left-wing in the United States). Above all, he made affordability the focus of his campaign, promising free buses, rent freezes, municipal grocery stores, and more...
Then there was the victory of two Democratic governors, in Virginia and New Jersey. This did not come as a huge surprise, but the gap with the Republicans is notable. Their campaigns also focused on the cost of living.
The case of Virginia is interesting. It is a state where many civil servants live. A population affected by DOGE layoffs and now the shutdown.
Donald Trump directly links the government shutdown to the Republicans' setbacks: "Trump not being on the ballot and the shutdown are the two reasons Republicans lost the election tonight," he wrote on Truth Social after the results were announced.
In any case, these local elections are a first warning for Republicans a year before the midterms. Donald Trump wants to avoid a repeat of the scenario from his first term: in 2018, he lost the majority in the House of Representatives, which then slowed down his legislative agenda.
