The DAX 40 in Frankfurt closed with a 2.25% gain, while London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.67%. For its part, the CAC 40 managed to appreciate by 1.97% to 8,425.13 points, posting a 2% gain over the week. This marks its fourth weekly increase since late February and the onset of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Performance of major indices since the start of the war

Notably, on the eve of the first exchanges of fire between the belligerents, the CAC 40 stood at 8,580.75 points, meaning it has yet to recover all its losses and still lags by 1.81%. The situation is similar for Frankfurt's DAX 40, which has shed 2.31% since the evening of February 27, and for the FTSE 100, which shows a decline of 2.29% over the same period.

Conversely, in the United States, major indices have seen a string of winning sessions this week. Some, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, have hit new all-time highs and post gains of 3.60% and 8% respectively since the start of the Middle East war (including today's robust rally). Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is up 1.15% over the same period, a performance that turned positive thanks to today's gains.

Weekly highlights

Over the past few days, equity markets have embarked on an upward trajectory, supported by the cessation of hostilities between Iran and the United States, hopes for a second round of negotiations between the two countries, and the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which could lead to a meeting in Washington—a first in decades.

However, the primary "market mover" was Friday's announcement by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that the Strait of Hormuz is now "fully open to commercial shipping." The official specified that maritime traffic would follow routes coordinated by the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization. This announcement comes within the framework of the Lebanese ceasefire agreements.

For his part, Donald Trump welcomed the move while indicating that "the naval blockade will remain fully in effect and maintained regarding Iran only, until our transaction with Iran is 100% complete. This process should move very quickly given that most points are already negotiated." He also added that "Iran, with U.S. assistance, has removed, or is in the process of removing, all sea mines." Finally, according to Bloomberg, the White House resident also noted that Iran had agreed to an indefinite suspension of its nuclear program.

In response to these developments, crude oil prices are in sharp retreat. WTI in New York plunged 12.70% to 81.43 dollars, while North Sea Brent lost 9.32% to 89.20 dollars, returning to levels seen in early March when market participants believed the conflict would be brief.

The impact on related stocks was immediate. Oil producers faced heavy selling pressure, with TotalEnergies losing 5.25%. Conversely, airline groups, where fuel accounts for 30% of operating costs, were in a celebratory mood. Air France-KLM notably surged by 7.41%.

On the currency market, the euro rose against the greenback (+0.18%), trading at 1.1804 dollars.

Macro and microeconomic outlook

Nevertheless, the recent spike in crude prices has, unsurprisingly, impacted inflation. This week, investors digested French and Eurozone inflation figures, which generally rose more than expected due to energy prices, particularly oil. Central bank action to curb inflation will be a decisive factor in the coming months.

The de-escalation of hostilities and the prospect of negotiations between the various parties have allowed investors to refocus on fundamentals. The pace of corporate earnings releases is beginning to accelerate. In the United States, several major banks unveiled particularly strong results, notably Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and JP Morgan.

In France, investors noted the underperformance of luxury sector players such as Kering and Hermès, which were heavily penalized following the publication of their first-quarter revenue.

This Friday, the collapse of Alstom was unavoidable, as the stock ended the day with a violent 27.15% drop. According to its preliminary results, the group announced a decline in its operating margin and, more significantly, the abandonment of its target for a cumulative free cash flow of 1.5 billion euros over the three fiscal years from 2024-2025 to 2026-2027. Furthermore, the medium-term forecast of an adjusted operating margin of 8% to 10% will not be met by the 2026-2027 horizon.

Also in France, Bouygues shed 0.19% this evening, while Orange lost 5.28%, the steepest decline on the CAC 40. Along with Free-Iliad Group, the two telecommunications operators have submitted a new bid and entered into exclusive negotiations with Altice France for the acquisition of SFR. The offer represents a total enterprise value of 20.35 billion euros.