On Saturday, 28 February, the United States launched Operation "Epic Fury” in Iran. A new episode adding an extra dose of unpredictability and tension to a geopolitical backdrop that has already been particularly fraught in recent months. In this context, risk assets - including bitcoin - are under pressure. BTC is down nearly 3% this Saturday, trading at around $64,000. After falling 10% in January, it is set to drop by around 17% in February.
MarketScreener
Bitcoin, the city of fear
Before lifting the lid on the Bitcoin blockchain, let's gauge investor fear. Google searches for "Bitcoin going to zero” have hit an unprecedented level over the past five years. In other words, crypto investors - and those watching the space - are not exactly brimming with confidence.
Google Trends
Another gauge of fear: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. To capture crypto investors' emotions, this tool combines several factors, weighted differently: volatility (25%), market momentum/volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%), dominance (10%) and trends (10%).
Right now, the indicator reads 5/100 - an extreme fear level. Similar readings were seen during other dark stretches in bitcoin's history: the FTX collapse, the Covid crisis, the Terra/Luna meltdown…
Glassnode
Now let's step inside the bitcoin blockchain through "on-chain analysis” - in other words, studying data written directly to the blockchain (transactions, wallet movements, miner activity…) to understand investor behavior and the state of the market in real time.
In profit or at a loss?
The share of bitcoins currently in profit stands at 53% - almost half. To calculate it, we look at the proportion of bitcoins whose price at their last transaction was below the current price. The last time this percentage was so low was when bitcoin hovered between $15,000 and $20,000 after the FTX debacle.
Glassnode
Another telling datapoint: after steady profit-taking since the launch of ETFs in early 2024, the start of this year marks a painful shift. Realized losses are now reaching record levels, comparable to those seen in 2022 during the FTX collapse. Between $500m and $2bn in realized losses have been recorded daily on the network for the past month, a period during which bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $64,000 today.
Glassnode
The halving effect…
Historically, the bitcoin halving - i.e., cutting in half the BTC reward paid to miners for each validated block - has always had a positive impact on the price. With supply becoming scarcer, if demand holds up, the mechanism should theoretically put upward pressure on bitcoin's price. The last halving, in April 2024, did not have the expected effect. Since the event, bitcoin has posted only about a 3% gain. In previous cycles, two years after the halving, bitcoin's price had risen by 400% to 6,800%.
Glassnode
Big wallets are taking advantage
On their side, the "big wallets” are accumulating bitcoins. The number of entities holding at least 100 BTC - the equivalent of $6.4m - keeps rising, a sign these players remain confident about the future and are using the price decline to build positions.
Glassnode
More broadly, we are seeing the same phenomenon as in previous cycles: old hands take profits during upswings by selling their old coins to speculators. That is followed by a prolonged, sometimes sharp decline, during which new entrants are not enough to absorb the selling. Prices fall, newcomers panic and sell at a loss, while old hands - present since the start of the cycle - buy back below their initial selling price. For 10 years, on-chain analysis has delivered the same lesson, even if the drivers of fear and declines differ from one cycle to the next. Is it different this time? We'll be talking about it again very soon in the pages of Zonebourse.
To wrap up, one last chart that may give you pause. Historically, looking at relative moves between an absolute peak and an absolute trough (Drawdown from ATH), bitcoin could still sink further. In previous cycles:
2011: bitcoin fell from $29 to $2 (-93%)
2013-2015: from $1,130 to $210 (-85%)
2017-2018: from $19,000 to $3,200 (-83%)
2021-2022: from $67,500 to $15,800 (-76%)
Since its October 2025 peak at $126,000, bitcoin is down 50%.
If a prolonged bear cycle were to unfold - which no one can confirm, not even the most polished crystal-ball holders - and if a bottom were to land 70% to 75% below its all-time high, bitcoin could trade in a zone between $31,000 and $38,000. Of course, nothing guarantees such a scenario. But one thing is certain: bitcoin has already shown that its volatility needs no introduction, and that as an investor, you need strong nerves.
