The conflict in Iran has now lasted for over three months, and there are difficulties in finding a resolution to it. While a ceasefire has been in effect since early April, Donald Trump still seems to be wavering between striking a deal and resuming hostilities.
Yesterday, Axios revealed that Iranian and American negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), allowing for the extension of the ceasefire, the lifting of shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the start to discussions regarding the Iranian nuclear program.
The agreement has yet to be confirmed by Donald Trump. Iran has also not reacted to this information.
A deal is close. Or is it?
This is not the first time a deal has seemed imminent and Axios journalist Barak Ravid has details news on the matter. Over the past few weeks, Donald Trump has oscillated between threats of renewed strikes and the promise of an impending agreement.
On Saturday, the US President said that a deal with Iran would be announced "soon" and that the "final details" were being negotiated. An announcement on Sunday was then suggested. The following day, he asked his negotiators "not to rush into a deal." On Wednesday, the White House denied reports of a memorandum of understanding from Iranian media, calling it "pure fiction."
Alongside these negotiations, skirmishes have regularly occurred around the Strait of Hormuz. This week, the US military conducted several strikes against Iran, which in turn retaliated by targeting a US base in Kuwait. According to Reuters, the Revolutionary Guard also fired warning shots at a US tanker attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, forcing it to turn back.
While both parties denounce ceasefire violations each time, no one seems to truly want to break it and resume fighting. The United States continues to frame its strikes as "defensive."
Something to show the American people
To end this conflict, Donald Trump needs a trophy. He cannot settle for the reopening of a strait that was already open before the conflict began.
Despite an intense bombing campaign and dozens of assassinated leaders, the "regime change" that Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed has not occurred. The Revolutionary Guard has even strengthened its control over the country.
The US President also cannot settle for an agreement that would resemble the 2015 deal - lifting sanctions in exchange for limits on enrichment - from which he himself withdrew in 2018. Donald Trump is already facing opposition from Republican hawks who fear he may make too many concessions to Iran.
"If all this results in an Iranian regime - still led by Islamists chanting 'Death to America' - now receiving billions of dollars, capable of enriching uranium and developing nuclear weapons, and exercising effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then it would be a disastrous mistake," Senator Ted Cruz warned over the weekend.
For weeks, President Trump has repeated that his sole aim is for Iran not to have a nuclear weapon. To claim victory on this front, he must address the stockpile of enriched uranium. Over the past few weeks, several possibilities have been mentioned: diluting the uranium in Iran, bringing it back to the United States, or entrusting it to another country. These solutions could be combined. However, these 440 kg of uranium constitute the regime's life insurance. Tehran will not give them up.
The deadlock in the nuclear file likely explains the revival of the Abraham Accords. In 2020, these allowed for the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and four Arab countries.
This weekend, Donald Trump urged his Gulf allies to join these accords. If the Gulf countries, and notably Saudi Arabia, were to agree, it would be a massive diplomatic coup and a prestigious exit for Donald Trump. But this seems unlikely in the near term.
