Donald Trump's promise to bring up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude into the American system has sent oil prices lower and revived fears of global oversupply. Venezuela today accounts for barely 1% of global oil output, yet uncertainty about its exports has proved enough to weigh on sentiment. In pre-market trading, the Dow Jones inched up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq 100 edged slightly lower.

Markets are less interested in how much oil is involved than in the shock factor. And when Russian warships appear to be escorting an old tanker off the coast of Venezuela, the episode stops looking like a minor detail and starts to feel like the beginning of a much bigger story.

Energy is not the only arena feeling the strain. Metals markets, which had enjoyed a strong rally, are pausing for breath. Gold has slipped as investors take profits and await fresh American economic data, even as geopolitical tension briefly revived its safe-haven appeal. Silver prices dipped too. However, copper prices remain stubbornly high - above $13,000 a tonne - held there by fears of tightening supply and the lingering spectre of American tariffs. 

The dollar is flat ahead of jobs data that may hint at when the Federal Reserve finally cuts rates. That decision could be complicated by the Supreme Court, which may soon rule on the legality of Trump's use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. A ruling against him could weaken the greenback, while a ruling for him would merely add another layer of uncertainty. 

Elsewhere, MSCI's decision not to exclude crypto-treasury firms from its indexes sent Strategy shares sharply higher. Mobileye's planned $900m purchase of a humanoid robotics start-up suggests that the race to blend AI with the physical world is accelerating. Nvidia's boss has confirmed that Chinese demand for its advanced AI chips remains "quite high", helped by Washington's controversial decision to approve sales. Elon Musk's xAI has raised a hefty $20bn, overshooting its funding target and underlining investors' appetite for big bets in artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Chevron and Quantum Energy Partners are preparing a joint bid for Lukoil's $22 billion worth of international assets.

Investors are now turning to the labour market for guidance, and the first signal is already a little softer than hoped. Private payrolls data, released this morning, rose by 41,000 in December, short of expectations, reinforcing the idea that hiring is losing momentum. Job openings data and, on Friday, the crucial nonfarm payrolls report will help decide whether this is a brief pause or a clearer slowdown, after a year disrupted by the longest government shutdown in American history. A cooling jobs market would give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. Stronger figures, however, would quickly bring the policy hawks back into view. Inflation, unhelpfully, still refuses to give a clear answer, leaving monetary policy finely balanced.

The macro agenda picks up today, with a series of employment indicators due from the United States. After the ADP survey, the JOLTS report will published today at 10 am ET. Compiled by the Department of Labor, tracks job openings from the penultimate month. While somewhat dated, it remains a useful gauge of labour market tightness. Markets will also digest the ISM services index, following Monday's disappointment in the manufacturing counterpart. These barometers will help refine expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate path in the coming months.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the early-year green has faded against a backdrop of further deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations. Beijing has slapped export restrictions on products and components to Japan with potential military applications. The Nikkei 225 (Japan) fell 1.1%, the Hang Seng (Hong Kong) dropped 1.3%, though the KOSPI (South Korea) managed to eke out a 0.1% gain. Australia, which struggled to get going in 2026, has emerged relatively well from this tougher session, adding 0.2%. The Stoxx Europe 600 is flat.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,317
  • Gold: $4,439
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $60.78 (WTI) $57.01
  • United States 10 years: 4.14%
  • BITCOIN: $92,071

In corporate news:

  • Bayer's Monsanto unit filed lawsuits against Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and BioNTech over alleged unauthorized use of mRNA technology originally developed for agriculture.
  • Berkshire Hathaway's new chief executive, Greg Abel, will earn $25m a year - more than Warren Buffett
  • Chevron and Quantum Energy Partners are preparing a joint bid for Lukoil's $22 billion worth of international assets.
  • Valero Energy will gradually idle its California Benicia refinery starting in February while evaluating strategic options for the facility.
  • Meta Platforms' $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus is under review by Chinese officials for possible export control violations.
  • Baidu's AI chip arm Kunlunxin narrowed down banks for its upcoming Hong Kong IPO that may raise up to $2 billion.
  • Shell signed an agreement to acquire a 35% stake in offshore oil blocks 49 and 50 in Angola from Chevron.
  • KKR is acquiring sports-focused private equity firm Arctos Partners in a deal valuing it at approximately $1 billion.
  • Simon Property Group is issuing $800 million in senior notes due 2031, with proceeds to repay existing debt.
  • Charter Communications priced a $3 billion senior unsecured notes offering, split between 2033 and 2036 maturities.
  • Newmont expects a Q1 impact of around 60,000 ounces of gold due to bushfires near its Boddington project in Australia.
  • MSCI reversed plans to exclude digital asset treasury companies from indexes and will conduct a broader consultation instead.
  • Montage Technology will sell its 13.1% stake in XConn to Marvell Technology, expecting proceeds between $58M–$65M.
  • The European Commission set a Feb. 10 deadline to rule on Google's $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz.
  • Eli Lilly expands healthcare presence with strategic acquisitions and partnerships.
  • Mobileye set to acquire humanoid robotics startup Mentee Robotics Ltd for $900 million.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Amcor Plc: Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral with a target price of USD 10.
  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 276 to USD 272.
  • Bank Of America Corporation: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform.
  • Block, Inc.: BNP Paribas upgrades to outperform from neutral and raises the target price from USD 70 to USD 83.
  • Carnival Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains equalwt with a price target raised from USD 32 to USD 33.
  • Citizens Financial Group, Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to outperform from strong buy and raises the target price from USD 62 to USD 66.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc: KeyBanc Capital Markets downgrades to sector weight from overweight.
  • Colgate-Palmolive Company: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 88.
  • Crocs, Inc.: Baird downgrades to neutral from outperform with a target price of USD 100.
  • Deckers Outdoor Corporation: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 100 to USD 85. 
  • Humana Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to market weight from overweight with a target price of USD 290.
  • Jpmorgan Chase & Co.: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform.
  • Mcdonald's Corporation: Oppenheimer upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 355.
  • On Semiconductor Corporation: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
  • The Hershey Company: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral and raises the target price from USD 193 to USD 213.
  • Union Pacific Corporation: BMO Capital Markets downgrades to market perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 270 to USD 255.
  • Universal Health Services, Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 259 to USD 235.
  • Us Bancorp: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform.
  • W.r. Berkley Corporation: Evercore ISI downgrades to underperform from in-line and reduces the target price from USD 70 to USD 69.
  • Yum! Brands, Inc.: Oppenheimer downgrades to market perform from outperform.