To start this column, let's have a look at the final league table for January:

Korean equities: +24%
Silver ounce: +19.1%
Brent crude oil: +14.6%
Gold ounce: +13.4%
Emerging market equities: +9%
European equities: +3.2%
US equities: +1.4%
EUR / USD: +0.9%
US 10 year bond: -0.9%
Bitcoin: -10.1%

Between 1 and 31 January, spikes in volatility caused major upheavals. Take, for example, a January without its final trading session. Silver would have ended the month up 64%, not 19.1%. Because something crazy happened on Friday: the grey metal plunged by more than 27%. An insane drop, after a brainless surge, prices having tripled in five months. Apparently, Chinese speculators exited en masse on Friday, triggering a collapse in the most crowded trade of the moment, being long precious metals. And it seems to be continuing this morning, with violent downward moves spreading into industrial metals.

Another rich seam of volatility lies in companies linked to artificial intelligence. Doubts about the viability of the current development model regularly catch up with the sector's players. Microsoft paid the price with a rare slump on the stockmarket. Memory chipmakers, adored in recent weeks because of a supply demand imbalance, abruptly fell back on Friday. The sector's firefighter on duty, Jensen Huang, tried to restart the engine. Nvidia's boss attempted to sweep away rumours about his caution regarding a massive investment in OpenAI, while offering reassurance to the industry during a visit to Taiwan. But the results are not very convincing this morning in Asia, judging by the state of South Korea's KOSPI.

At this stage, the earnings season is unfolding as usual: US companies are beating expectations in their customary proportions. European companies are struggling a little more, unless they are simply less adept at polishing their numbers. In any case, corporate profits are holding up rather well, and doubts are coming more from politics, particularly in the United States. Investors are unsure what to make of Kevin Warsh's appointment at the helm of the Federal Reserve at the end of Jerome Powell's term in May. Recently aligned with Donald Trump's desire to see interest rates cut, Warsh was in the past a fairly orthodox central banker, something Wall Street has not forgotten. Perhaps financiers remember that in his day, Powell, appointed by Trump, was also seen as being in thrall to the occupant of the White House. We know how that ended. To his credit, the President of the United States said on Friday that he had not asked Warsh to commit to cutting rates, a deft way of soothing the bond market's watchdogs while awaiting the new Fed chair's arrival in May.

At the same time, tensions surrounding misconduct by US immigration police have led to yet another administrative shutdown. That said, Democrats and Republicans could agree on a rapid way out of the crisis, possibly by tomorrow. The conditional remains appropriate, because US political media are widely highlighting the fault lines that persist within both camps over what should come next. There is no doubt about it, this is an additional source of volatility.

Other items not to be missed to start the week well:

  • The Speaker of the House is aiming for an end to the partial shutdown by Tuesday.
  • Opec+ is maintaining oil production for March despite fears linked to Iran. Oil prices reversed after Trump spoke in favour of an agreement with the Iranian authorities to avoid a crisis.
  • The yen is weakening against the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that a weak yen helps exporters, but that she is neither for nor against a weak or strong currency. The head of government is a strong contender for the prize for stating the obvious.
  • China's manufacturing PMI ticked up slightly in January, in line with expectations at 50.3 points.
  • This week, Palantir, Walt Disney, AMD, Alphabet, Eli Lilly, Novartis, BNP Paribas and Amazon will face the test of the markets. A quarter of large US companies and a fifth of their European peers are due to report quarterly results this week.
  • The macroeconomic calendar will focus on the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday and US monthly employment data on Friday.

In Asia Pacific, the most complacent bets of the start of the year are also being unwound. The archetype of an overheated market, South Korea, is taking a heavy hit, with the KOSPI down 5.2%. Hong Kong is falling by 3%. Resistance is much better in Japan, Australia and Taiwan, where the main indices are down by around 1%. India remains weakly correlated with the rest of global finance, with a limited decline of 0.1%. Western leading indicators look frankly ugly, pointing to heavy losses at the open.

Today's economic highlights:

On the agenda today: RatingDog Manufacturing PMI in China; Nationwide Housing Prices MoM and YoY in the United Kingdom; Retail Sales YoY and MoM in Germany; Retail Sales YoY and procure.ch Manufacturing PMI in Switzerland; HCOB Manufacturing PMI in Spain and Italy; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in Canada; in the United States, ISM Manufacturing Employment, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Fed Bostic Speech. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.37
  • Gold: US$4,533.89
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$66.04
  • United States 10 years: 4.22%
  • BITCOIN: US$76,552.3

In corporate news:

  • Polestar secures a $400 million equity investment from Feathertop Funding Limited, backed by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Standard Chartered Bank, to enhance its liquidity amid a cash crunch.
  • Glencore and Rio Tinto want to extend the deadline for their merger.
  • Diageo is expected to recover as RBC Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating, highlighting the company's leadership and potential for revival under new CEO Dave Lewis.
  • Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust secures a 122 million pounds sterling revolving credit facility with Bank of Nova Scotia, replacing its previous facility.
  • Intesa Sanpaolo plans a €5.1 bn investment over 2026-2029, with €4.6 bn earmarked for technology and growth initiatives.
  • BFF Bank is implementing a de-risking program for its factoring portfolio, costing approximately EUR95M, impacting financial targets for 2025 and 2026.
  • Massimiliano Belingheri resigns as CEO of BFF Bank SpA.
  • The departure of Barry Callebaut's CEO follows a split at the top of the company over plans to spin off the cocoa business, according to Reuters.
  • Stillfront announces a SEK 2.258 billion goodwill write-down and provides preliminary Q4-2025 and full-year guidance.
  • Bob Iger plans to step down as CEO of Walt Disney before the end of his term, according to the WSJ. Bloomberg believes that Josh D'Amaro, president of the theme parks division, will be appointed to take over.
  • Oracle plans to raise $45-$50 billion in 2026 through equity and debt issuance to enhance cloud capacity.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Lloyds Banking Group Plc: Shore Capital downgrades to sell from hold with a target price of GBX 91.
  • Jupiter Fund Management Plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 165 to GBX 175.
  • Sage Group Plc: Canaccord Genuity upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from GBX 1100 to GBX 1135.
  • Relx Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 42.55 to GBP 37.45.
  • Pets At Home Group Plc: RBC Capital maintains its underperform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 190 to GBX 195.
  • Legal & General Plc: RBC Capital maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 210 to GBX 205.
  • M&G Plc: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 265 to GBX 260.
  • Phoenix Group Holdings Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from GBX 735 to GBX 815.
  • Wpp Group: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 3.25 to GBP 2.50.
  • London Stock Exchange Group Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 125 to GBP 120.
  • Itv Plc: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 0.75 to GBP 0.84.
  • Lloyds Banking Group Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 1.20 to GBP 1.26.
  • Fresnillo Plc: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 47 to GBP 45.