On the geopolitical front, the conflict in the Middle East continues, and experts are not expecting a cessation of hostilities for several weeks. Yesterday, markets reacted to a report by The New York Times indicating that Iranian officials had attempted to open talks with Washington to end the hostilities—an initiative swiftly rejected by Donald Trump, who reportedly deemed it "too late".

The United States also claimed this morning to have destroyed an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, torpedoed by a submarine, further diminishing the prospects for short-term negotiations.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, energy markets remain volatile, but the rise in oil prices now appears contained, with Brent crude hovering around 83 USD per barrel. Earlier this week, it briefly exceeded 85 USD.

"What is happening with energy is normal," says Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM. "Oil is a shallow market where supply can quickly move prices, which leads to abrupt episodes of volatility. As long as there is no contagion, there is no reason to panic," he explains.

In a note published this morning, Goldman Sachs estimates that the main impact of the conflict on the global economy is through energy prices, with oil up 14% since the end of February. According to the bank, this price level could add about +0.2 percentage points to global inflation and subtract about -0.1 percentage points from growth.

The bank also highlights a recent tightening of global financial conditions by about 31 basis points, which could shave up to -0.3 percentage points off global growth if it persists.

Finally, the shutdown of liquefied natural gas production capacity in Qatar, representing nearly 19% of global supply, could exacerbate price tensions for gas in Europe and Asia.

Stocks on the Move

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, the Paris market is being driven by STMicroelectronics, up 4.6%, buoyed by the launch of a new microcontroller for connected devices and by the positive momentum in the semiconductor sector following Broadcom's results.

In the aerospace sector, Airbus is up 1.6% after its rating was raised from "neutral" to "buy" by Citi, which also increased its price target from 208 to 217 EUR. The broker believes the aircraft manufacturer could reach a production rate of 75 planes per month, supported by a robust order book and demand for more fuel-efficient aircraft.

Conversely, airlines are being penalized by geopolitical tensions. In London, Wizz Air is down 9% after a profit warning. The Hungarian airline expects a negative impact of 50 million euros on its net profit for the 2026 fiscal year, as flight cancellations and rerouting due to the Middle East crisis drive up operating costs.

Meanwhile, Ryanair is down 2.5%, as are easyJet (-1.7%) and Lufthansa (-1.9%).

However, Air France-KLM, which has extended its suspension of flights to the Middle East until March 8 and suspended its Cuba route due to a fuel shortage, is up 0.8% in early afternoon trading after a 2% drop earlier in the morning.

In Germany, DHL is down 3% following results deemed disappointing and cautious outlook for 2026, notably hampered by U.S. tariffs.

Stats and Figures

On the macroeconomic front, retail sales in the eurozone fell by 0.1% in January, whereas economists had expected a 0.3% increase, after a +0.2% rise in December.

In France, manufacturing output rebounded by 0.6% in January after a -0.7% decline in December 2025, according to Insee. Total industrial production rose by 0.5% after a 0.5% drop the previous month.

Investors will be watching several U.S. statistics this afternoon, including weekly jobless claims, import and export prices, and nonfarm productivity, all due at 2:30 p.m.

In this climate of uncertainty, gold is trading around 5,150 USD per ounce (+0.3%), while the euro remains stable against the dollar at around 1.16 USD.