The past week likely marks a major turning point in the macroeconomic narrative of recent months. After dominating global financial markets since March, the geopolitical risk associated with Iran is finally beginning to fade. The signing of a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, providing for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has profoundly shifted investor behavior.

The market reaction was immediate. Oil continued its correction, bonds stabilized, and risk assets reclaimed their leadership. Emerging markets even reached new all-time highs, while cyclical stocks, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence themes returned to the front of the pack.

Nevertheless, the gradual disappearance of energy risk brings back to the forefront a subject that investors had momentarily set aside: monetary policy. The Fed meeting was the true event of the week. As expected, rates remained unchanged, but the tone adopted by Kevin Warsh proved to be much firmer than what markets had grown accustomed to under Jerome Powell.

The Fed now explicitly acknowledges that the American economy continues to run at a pace above its potential. Retail sales grew by 0.9% month-over-month, control group sales by 0.7%, auto sales remain solid, and weekly jobless claims stay near historic lows. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rebounded from -0.4 to +10.3, illustrating a tangible improvement in industrial activity.

At the same time, inflationary pressures persist. Import prices are now rising at 6.7% annually, while export prices have reached +11.2%. In Europe, headline inflation has climbed back to 3.2% and wages are accelerating at 3.4%. The oil shock of recent months is thus still leaving visible marks in the statistics.

It is precisely this combination of solid growth and stubbornly high inflation that explains the Fed's change in tone. Warsh hinted that a rate hike remains possible by the end of the year if inflationary pressures do not moderate further. Markets reacted immediately: the dollar appreciated, short-term rates rebounded, and precious metals saw significant profit-taking.

However, the equity market is not behaving as if it anticipates an economic slowdown. On the contrary, the decline in oil and the gradual normalization of supply chains are restoring visibility for investors. Emerging markets, semiconductors, robotics, energy infrastructure, and several growth segments are once again showing strong relative momentum.

The dominant message is therefore evolving. For several months, the primary risk was a recession triggered by the oil shock. Today, the central scenario is once again that of a global economy that is slowing moderately but remains in expansion. The major risk is no longer oil, but inflation persistent enough to prevent central banks from returning to an accommodative stance anytime soon.

Technically, the dollar index rebounded off initial support at 99.30 and is now testing major resistance at 101.15. This level represents a turning point and will determine the coming trend for the second half of the year and potentially beyond. In parallel, EURUSD is also testing support at $1.1415 with initial resistance at $1.1560.