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Following this corrective phase, efforts by the US government to broker peace terms bolstered investor optimism, supporting an uneven recovery in prices. Gaining fresh momentum toward historic highs - defying a US interest rate environment where the likelihood of cuts is fading in the face of unexpected resilience - Comex prices are once again decoupling from the LME. They have surged 7% in a month, reaching $6.60 per pound (equivalent to $14,580 per tonne) in just two weeks.

Furthermore, Panmure Liberum notes that "US copper traders are bracing for a potential Department of Commerce (DoC) announcement that could upend the market." According to the British investment bank, the DoC is mandated to release the findings of its risk analysis report by June 30 regarding the implementation of a 50% tariff on US refined copper imports, a measure originally requested by President Trump last July.

"Ironically, the US market is already fully pricing in the risk associated with one potential conclusion of this assessment: namely, that 'hammering all copper imports with a massive tariff would be an excellent idea'," Panmure Liberum asserts.

The analyst recalls that tariffs have previously been imposed on copper. On July 30, 2025, President Donald Trump stated that the US Secretary of Commerce had drafted a report - not accessible to the public - concluding that copper imports threaten national security.

An Initial Round of Import Tariffs

At the time, the Secretary of Commerce's recommendations were as follows:

- An immediate 30% tariff on semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives;

- A universal and progressive tariff on refined copper: 15% in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028;

- A starting rate of 25% for copper inputs (raw materials), effective from 2027;

- A 25% rate (coupled with export controls) on high-quality copper waste and scrap.

The US government responded to this DoC report by announcing an initial round of import tariffs, applied from August 1, 2025. Taxes of 50% were then imposed on imports of semi-finished copper products (pipes, wires, bars, plates, tubes) as well as higher value-added derivatives containing copper (cables, connectors).

However, these taxes affected less than 5% of total US imports of copper-containing products. No duties have yet been imposed on the bulk of total US imports, including cathodes (refined copper), blister (unrefined copper), scrap, matte, copper concentrates, and ore.

This is precisely why the DoC was commissioned by the government in July 2025 to further investigate the risks associated with the broader set of tariffs it had initially proposed. The conclusions of this report are therefore expected on June 30.