Orlopp noted that ten percent of the workload will be replaced by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the coming years. Employees could then be redeployed, or their positions would be phased out. However, she does not intend to further thin out the branch network. Kevin Voss from the Verdi union stated that compulsory redundancies are 'effectively ruled out.'
'We have seen what the alternative would be,' explained Group Works Council Chairman Sascha Uebel on the bank's intranet. 'Savings will be inevitable - but they are far less painful than the radical downsizing we would expect in the event of a takeover.' Uebel warned that 'well over 10,000 jobs' would quickly be affected both domestically and abroad. Verdi estimates that a merger with UniCredit subsidiary HypoVereinsbank could put up to 15,000 jobs at risk. In the event of a merger between Commerzbank and its own German subsidiary HypoVereinsbank, UniCredit estimates the loss of 7,000 positions.
Commerzbank has already undergone several rounds of austerity: only a year ago, it announced the cutting of 3,900 jobs, though some of these were to be recreated elsewhere.
BACKING FROM THE CHANCELLOR
Orlopp is fighting a takeover by UniCredit, which on Tuesday submitted an official exchange offer to Commerzbank shareholders. While this offer is mathematically below Commerzbank's current share price, the Italians have already secured access to a good 35 percent of Commerzbank via stock options. They currently hold 26.7 percent. This would give CEO Andrea Orcel a free hand from early 2027 to further increase the stake and put Commerzbank under greater pressure. Orlopp advised shareholders to hold firm: 'Those who remain invested with us retain value creation potential and all strategic options.' She accused UniCredit of trying to talk down the bank's value to depress its share price. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) reiterated his support for Commerzbank on Thursday: 'We resolutely reject hostile and aggressive actions. This is how trust is destroyed.'
Orlopp accused Orcel of failing to understand Commerzbank's business model, even after ten meetings over recent months. She warned that Orcel's plans for the bank were completely unrealistic within the timeframe mentioned. There has been radio silence between Orcel and Orlopp since Easter. However, the bank remains open to talks, provided the Italians offer shareholders a premium on the share price and are willing to 'discuss a plan openly that takes into account the pillars of Commerzbank's business model and strategy.' Among other things, Orcel has questioned Commerzbank's extensive international network, which supports German Mittelstand companies abroad. 'This is our core business,' Orlopp said, noting it generates 1.8 billion euros in revenue.
COMMERZBANK AIMS FOR GROWTH DESPITE WEAK ECONOMY
Despite the weak economic environment, Commerzbank is raising its 2028 targets and promising even more for 2030: by then, Orlopp aims to increase revenues to 16.8 billion euros (2025: 12.2 billion). The interim target for 2028 is 15 billion euros, 800 million higher than previously planned - though this aligns with levels already priced in by analysts. CFO Carsten Schmitt said the bank expects the economy to pick up from 2027. The securities business is to be expanded, and the bank aims to gain market share among German corporate clients. 'We are growing faster than planned, and our new targets through 2030 reflect this - ambitious yet reliable in execution. Any alternative must be measured against this,' Orlopp said.
The bank aims to deliver a net profit of 5.9 billion euros by 2030; for the current year, the bar is now set at 3.4 billion euros (2025: 3.0 billion), 200 million more than predicted in February. Analysts expect nearly 3.5 billion. A 600 million euro investment in AI alone is expected to contribute half a billion euros in value through savings, increased revenue, and lower risks. This is intended to reduce the cost-to-income ratio to 43 percent. For 2026, the bank is targeting 53 percent. Orcel had cited HVB as a model for Commerzbank - it operates at 34 percent. Orlopp aims to double the return on equity to around 21 percent by 2030 (2025: 10 percent), with a target of 17 percent for 2028.
In the first quarter, Commerzbank exceeded analyst expectations with a net profit of 913 million euros (compared to 834 million). The bank stated this was the best net result since 2011. By Friday afternoon, Commerzbank shares had lost 3.6 percent to 35.59 euros, making them among the weakest performers on the Dax. One trader remarked that the quarterly result was solid but not outstanding, suggesting that some of the momentum from the takeover narrative had dissipated.
(Report by Alexander Huebner and Tom Sims, edited by Olaf Brenner, copy-edited by Sabine Wollrab. For inquiries, please contact our editorial office at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for politics and economics) or frankfurt.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for companies and markets).)
