The CAC40 kicks off the January term—and thus the first quarter of 2026—with a 19th consecutive session of stagnation within the 8,050/8,150 corridor: the index, down -0.6%, lands right in the middle of the range, in an atmosphere typical of the holiday season, with activity 30 to 40% below average.
Many market participants have already left for vacation, and major European stock exchanges will close for the long Christmas weekend starting at midday on Wednesday, meaning trading volumes are expected to remain very thin.
The Euro-Stoxx50 is faring no better than the CAC, down -0.45%, while the DAX is only slightly ahead at -0.35%. The positive reopening of Wall Street (marking a third consecutive session of gains) has offered no help so far, despite increases ranging between +0.3% and +0.4% (for the Nasdaq).

With the Christmas holidays also resulting in a partial closure of Wall Street, global markets are expected to slow down this week and remain within narrow trading ranges, promising little excitement.

Equity markets have recently benefited from signs of slowing U.S. inflation (note that last Tuesday's "CPI" release was largely incomplete in terms of components), which has bolstered expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its accommodative monetary policy.

While the S&P 500 posted only symbolic gains last week (+0.1%), the benchmark index for American managers is now less than 0.7% away from its all-time high set on December 11.

According to technical analysts, breaking through 6,901 would foreshadow a test of 7,000—a "round" number that could be targeted by December 31 to close out the year in style, with a gain close to 20%.

The ongoing cycle of rate cuts in the United States and optimism about the ECB have also allowed the CAC to end last week on a positive note (+1%) and to come within less than 2% of its all-time high from Thursday, November 13.

However, the situation is becoming more concerning in the bond markets, which have returned to their worst levels of the year following the latest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This has pushed the yield on ten-year Bunds above 2.912% (+2 basis points) and the OAT to 3.634% (+2.2 points), while Italian BTPs are holding up better but still show a gain of +1.2pt at 3.584%.

Yields are also rising worryingly in the United States, where the "30-year" is up +1pt at 4.8400% and the "10-year" is steady at 4.17% (-1.1pt).
But where the situation is becoming explosive is in Japan, with the "10-year" literally surging to 2.0820%, the "20-year" (+4.5pts) crossing the 3% mark for the first time, and the "40-year" soaring above 3.723% (another all-time record).

Gold, meanwhile, is up 1.4% at 4,444 dollars, setting a new peak—a rather unusual situation as equity markets are at their highest and the precious metal is typically a safe haven. Silver (+2.2%) smashes through the 69-dollar mark.

Oil confirms its Friday rebound, with Brent adding +1.6% to 61.7 dollars and WTI +1.7% to 57.8 dollars.

The euro has also strengthened, gaining 0.45% and climbing above 1.1765 against the greenback.

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