The Paris stock market is posting a modest gain of 0.3% this morning, hovering around 8,150 points, buoyed by Edenred (+2%), Saint-Gobain (+1.8%), and Stellantis (+1.6%).
Investors are watching with a degree of anxiety for the latest U.S. inflation data, which could prompt a reassessment of rate cut expectations in the months ahead.
The release of this statistic at 2:30 p.m., which the Federal Reserve uses to track price dynamics, will be crucial in determining the Paris index's weekly performance.
Recent indicators confirming a slowdown in the U.S. labor market have reinforced expectations of another Fed rate cut in December. However, caution prevails given the persistence of core inflation in recent months.
Consensus forecasts call for a 2.9% year-on-year rise in the core PCE index (excluding food and energy) for September, matching the increase recorded in August.
An unexpected reading could prompt markets to revise their outlook for the Fed's rate trajectory through 2026, as investors currently price in two rate cuts next year, in addition to the widely expected cut next week.
Traders in futures markets now place the probability of another easing move following the December 9-10 meeting at 87%, up from 68% a month ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
"Although we are already in December, due to the recent federal government shutdown, these figures will only provide a snapshot for the month of September," Danske Bank analysts caution this morning. "This should be kept in mind when analyzing the data," the Danish bank adds.
Investors will also closely monitor the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, due at 4 p.m., which will be the first survey on household sentiment since the end of the "shutdown," suggesting a possible improvement over the previous month.
Futures on New York indices currently point to a slightly higher opening on Wall Street, in the range of 0.1% to 0.3%, though this trend could shift following the PCE index release.
While awaiting the U.S. indicators, markets this morning digested a series of statistics from the Old Continent.
Industrial production in France remained virtually flat in October, after a sharp increase the previous month (-0.1% after +0.9% in September), while overall industry output rose moderately (+0.2% after +0.7%).
France's trade deficit narrowed significantly to 3.92 billion euros in October (versus an expected -5.2 billion euros) after 6.35 billion euros the previous month, according to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data from Bercy.
German manufacturing orders by volume rose 1.5% in October from the previous month (versus +0.5% expected), according to adjusted figures from Destatis, following a 2% increase in September (revised from an initial estimate of 1.1%).
Finally, in the third quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.3% in the euro area (versus 0.2% expected) and by 0.4% in the EU compared to the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
In the bond market, the 2035 OAT yield stands at 3.52% compared to 2.77% for a Bund of the same maturity.
The euro is edging up 0.1% against the greenback, at 1.165 USD.
After their recent rebound, oil prices are treading water, caught between geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of a Fed rate cut on the one hand, and the prospect of a persistently oversupplied market on the other. Brent crude remains steady around 63.4 USD per barrel.
Gold remains well-supported by the prospect of Fed rate cuts, with the precious metal advancing 0.4% to 4,225 USD an ounce.
In French corporate news, Derichebourg reported a sharp 63% increase in net profit to 122 million euros for its 2024-25 fiscal year, "thanks to the significant contribution from Elior Group, which is expected to grow substantially in the coming years."
Air Liquide will invest approximately 25 million euros to modernize its air separation unit (ASU) in Yulin, Shaanxi province. Additionally, the company announced it has signed an agreement with Hyundai Motor Group to strengthen their international partnership and accelerate the hydrogen economy.
