After last week's turmoil, the Paris Stock Exchange is likely to experience a few more turbulent days in its last full week of 2025, which promises to be particularly busy given the important economic statistics looming in the United States and the numerous central bank meetings that are set to drive trading.

At around 8:15 a.m., the December futures contract on the CAC 40 index was up 33.5 points at 8,106 points, suggesting a favorable start to the session.

Between the Fed's unclear message and disappointment over Oracle's and then Broadcom's results, global equity markets struggled to find direction last week, as illustrated by the CAC's 0.6% weekly decline after five sessions of ups and downs.

Wall Street also had a mixed week, marked by new all-time highs for the Dow Jones and S&P 500, but also by final losses of between 0.6% for the S&P 500 and 1.6% for the Nasdaq.

Despite these erratic movements, volatility remained relatively contained on both sides of the Atlantic.

At less than 16 points, the CBOE's VIX index, which serves as a "fear gauge" on Wall Street, remains well below its peak of 28 set less than a month ago, while its European counterpart, the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index, the VSTOXX, continues to trade at its lowest levels of the year.

However, this lull could prove to be short-lived, and volatility could well return to global stock markets, or even become the norm in 2026, strategists warn.

For Amundi, investors will now have to contend with what Europe's leading asset manager considers to be a new era of "controlled disorder."

"Portfolios are exposed to both opportunities and threats at a time when innovations that improve productivity are also creating winners and losers," said Monica Defend, director of the Amundi Investment Institute.

This view is shared by Scott Chronert, Citi's strategist, who believes that the coming year will continue to be characterized by very uneven performance between AI specialists and other companies that have no choice but to adapt to this new technological landscape, a configuration known as a "K-shaped economy" that benefits a few winners but penalizes the less fortunate.

However, the analyst believes that the new year looks potentially very favorable for the stock markets, albeit with much greater volatility.

"Starting from such high valuation levels is a drag on the market, but not an insurmountable obstacle," he says.

"On the other hand, it greatly increases the pressure on fundamentals to justify the continued rise," he warns.

After three years of continuous growth in New York, Scott Chronert still sees the S&P rising by more than 12% in 2026 to reach the 7,700-point threshold, after gains that have already reached 16% this year.

While the end of the year is usually a quiet period on the markets, important economic indicators due out this week could stimulate trading.

The US employment report, eagerly awaited by the markets and due to be released tomorrow, is expected to show that the US economy created only 35,000 non-farm jobs in November.

These figures, released more than two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown, are also expected to include estimates of job creation in October, estimated at around 55,000 jobs, but not the unemployment rate for that month, as the paralysis of the Department of Labor prevented the collection of certain data.

In addition, the November inflation report, scheduled for Thursday, is expected to show that consumer prices (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year, unchanged from September, given that October data will never be published due to the shutdown.

Investors will also be watching announcements from central banks, starting with the ECB, which is not expected to spring any surprises on Thursday with key interest rates likely to remain unchanged.

The institution's president, Christine Lagarde, is expected to reaffirm that monetary policy is currently in a "good position," but the new growth and inflation projections to be presented on Thursday could change investor expectations.

In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to decide on Thursday to cut rates by a quarter of a point in an attempt to revive economic growth, which has been stagnant for several quarters.

Conversely, the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise its interest rate again by 25 basis points, after having increased the cost of credit three times since the beginning of 2024.

On the bond market, rates continue to be volatile, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which had fallen sharply to 4.10% on Thursday, is rising again, above 4.19%, despite the weakening of the dollar.

On Friday, the euro rose above 1.17, its highest level in two months against the greenback, a rise that could pave the way, according to some currency traders, for it to reach the 1.1750 threshold, or even return to its annual high of 1.1850 by the end of the year, if the ECB takes a less accommodating stance.

Up 1.1% to $4,376.6, gold continues its inexorable rise, which could send it, according to industry experts, towards the $4,460 target in the short term.

Another factor likely to significantly increase market volatility will occur on Friday, with the "four witches," or the expiration of four different types of futures and options contracts, which most often also leads to an increase in volumes as traders unwind their hedging positions.

It should be noted that the week beginning today will be the last full week of the year, as Christmas and New Year's Day fall in the middle of the week this year.

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