FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Detailed study results from Bayer regarding its drug candidate Asundexian are fueling investor optimism for strong business prospects with the blood thinner. Analysts expressed positive views on the efficacy and safety of the medication for preventing a second stroke. As a result, the DAX-listed company's share price rose by around four percent on the Tradegate trading platform Friday morning compared to the Xetra close, reaching 46.64 euros. This puts the stock just a few cents shy of its late January high, the highest point since autumn 2023. Since hitting a multi-year low in spring 2025, Bayer's share price has now gained more than 150 percent.
The outlook for the pharmaceutical and agrochemical group has recently brightened considerably. Notably, Bayer has made progress in its efforts to resolve U.S. legal disputes over alleged cancer risks linked to glyphosate-containing weed killers. The Leverkusen-based company can now hope for a favorable landmark ruling from the highest U.S. court, the U.S. Supreme Court.
At the same time, many investors' concerns about a looming patent cliff in the pharmaceuticals business seem to have dissipated. Worries have subsided significantly that new drugs would be unable to offset declining revenues from the blockbuster products Xarelto and Eylea, due to the loss of patent protection for the blood thinner and eye medication. What was once considered a major patent cliff now appears to be only a minor bump in the road, as analysts Christian Faitz and David Evans of Kepler Cheuvreux wrote as recently as January.
Bayer now sees its pharmaceuticals division back on a growth trajectory, thanks to the success of relatively new drugs and planned launches of additional medicines. "We now have five major blockbuster candidates," Stefan Oelrich, head of the pharmaceuticals division, told financial news agency dpa-AFX at the start of the year during the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco. The executive also expects "extremely strong" growth in the coming years through the 2030s.
This outlook now appears to be further supported by the Asundexian data. Initial results from the pivotal Phase III trial had already convinced investors and analysts last autumn. However, experts pointed to the newly released detailed data as being decisive for the drug's sales potential.
According to the data published Thursday evening, the study showed a reduction in the number of recurrent strokes by just over a quarter. JPMorgan analyst Vosser had previously forecast annual peak sales of 1.4 billion euros after 2035, as well as revenues of around 100 million euros in 2028. However, in light of the new data, he now sees scope for upside, both in initial revenues and peak sales. The drug's sales potential will also depend on competitors' performance. Key study results for the rival compound Milvexian, developed by Johnson & Johnson and Bristol Myers Squibb, are expected at the end of 2026 and early 2027.
Matthew Weston of Swiss banking giant UBS also expressed optimism. Both the efficacy and safety profile of the blood thinner received applause at the International Stroke Conference, Weston wrote in an initial assessment. The success in preventing ischemic strokes (cerebral infarction) is significant. In the stroke prevention market, Weston currently estimates Asundexian's annual peak sales potential at 1.5 billion U.S. dollars (just under 1.3 billion euros), with an 80 percent probability./mis/nas/stk
