"We are raising our NAV (Net Asset Value) following the update of our assumptions, reflecting higher production levels in line with the announced targets. This revision incorporates greater visibility on the volumes across the entire upstream portfolio, as well as the addition of TotalEnergies' 20% stake in Mopane, which brings additional resource potential to our risk-weighted assessment," the research firm explained to justify its decision.
AlphaValue has also raised its DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation after adding the year 2028, extending the forecast horizon and factoring in a stronger operational outlook.
"We have increased our cumulative Capex (investment) assumptions by USD 15 billion over the period (with 2026 unchanged), now modeling USD 16.3 billion in 2027 and USD 16.4 billion in 2028. This reflects continued investments in low-cost upstream projects, LNG expansion, and downstream optimization. At the same time, we are lowering our Brent price assumptions to USD 62/barrel in 2026 (from USD 70), USD 63/barrel in 2027 (from USD 68), and USD 66/barrel in 2028 (from USD 68), to align with a more conservative mid-cycle framework," AlphaValue specified.
Despite this reduction in reference prices, the analyst is significantly revising volumes upward, in line with guidance and improved execution in 2025:
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Integrated LNG production: volumes are raised from 495 / 503 / 510 / 518 kboe/d (for the 2025-2028 period) to 539 / 560 / 574 / 590 kboe/d (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day), due to stronger performance in 2025 and the continuation of a roughly 3% growth trajectory for oil and gas (with oil in line with expectations).
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Refining: AlphaValue revises throughput assumptions from 1366 / 1264 / 1181 kb/d to 1526 / 1490 / 1456 / 1425 kb/d. This removes the previously modeled sharp structural decline in Europe (from -16% to -6%) to align volumes with a more gradual normalization.
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Marketing & Services: volumes are increased from 1314 / 1286 / 1259 kb/d to 1590 / 1561 / 1532 / 1505 kb/d, reflecting the resilience of retail demand.
TotalEnergies SE is one of the leading worldwide oil groups. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- refining and chemistry (43.6%): refining of petroleum products (operated, at the end of 2024, 14 refineries throughout the world) and manufacture of basic chemistry (olefins, aromatics, polyethylene, fertilizer, etc.) and of specialty chemistry (rubber, resins, adhesives, etc.). The group is also operating in trading and sea transport of crude oil and oil products;
- petroleum products distribution (38.8%): at the end of 2024 operated 13,148 service stations worldwide;
- electricity generation (10.3%): from combined cycle gas plants and renewable energies;
- gas production, trading, transport and distribution (4.6%): primarily liquefied natural gas (39.8 million tons sold in 2024), natural gas, biogas, hydrogen, liquefied petroleum gas, etc.;
- hydrocarbon operating and production (2.6%): 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent produced per day in 2024;
- other (0.1%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (23%), Europe (41.5%), Africa (10.2%), North America (8.4%) and other (16.9%).
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